TABLE 2.
The mean and standard deviation of the true positive tests, true negative tests, false negative tests, false positive tests, and the missing cases who are not tested in the population, using the test allocation strategy determined by the proposed detecting mode and alternative allocation methods
| True positive | True negative | False negative | False positive | Missing cases | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (SD) | Mean (SD) | Mean (SD) | Mean (SD) | Mean (SD) | |
| Limited number of tests as 50 000; =0.55 | |||||
| Detecting mode | 34654 (178.3) | 463 (23.7) | 14833 (121.6) | 5 (2.0) | 125497 (336.3) |
| Risk‐based | 34654 (178.3) | 463 (23.7) | 14833 (121.6) | 5 (2.0) | 125497 (336.3) |
| Symptom‐based | 34415 (207.9) | 795 (29.0) | 14736 (122.0) | 8 (2.9) | 125834 (317.5) |
| Severe‐only | 14178 (108.7) | 29425 (157.6) | 6075 (70.4) | 299 (18.6) | 154732 (359.6) |
| Universal random | 761 (27.4) | 48412 (208.2) | 331 (17.3) | 491 (23.1) | 173893 (400.0) |
| Sufficient number of tests as 200 000; =0.55 | |||||
| Detecting mode | 56840 (248.6) | 117589 (326.0) | 24333 (162.1) | 1186 (35.5) | 93811 (265.0) |
| Risk‐based | 55364 (234.9) | 119617 (314.4) | 23720 (145.0) | 1209 (31.8) | 95901 (269.5) |
| Symptom‐based | 56128 (219.4) | 118583 (311.7) | 24046 (154.3) | 1195 (34.0) | 94811 (267.7) |
| Severe‐only | 16214 (118.0) | 175026 (408.7) | 6950 (79.8) | 1766 (38.1) | 151821 (352.2) |
| Universal random | 3051 (49.9) | 193643 (404.0) | 1317 (36.4) | 1954 (41.4) | 170617 (397.3) |
| Limited number of tests as 50 000; =0.90 | |||||
| Detecting mode | 12720 (105.6) | 31528 (177.9) | 5445 (80.5) | 320 (19.4) | 156820 (364.6) |
| Risk‐based | 12628 (122.4) | 31609 (172.2) | 5415 (75.5) | 320 (20.1) | 156942 (368.0) |
| Symptom‐based | 12676 (117.5) | 31566 (168.9) | 5430 (64.9) | 321 (19.2) | 156879 (365.3) |
| Severe‐only | 3728 (56.9) | 44212 (193.4) | 1605 (42.5) | 448 (21.4) | 169652 (401.7) |
| Universal random | 759 (28.9) | 48414 (207.1) | 330 (17.8) | 491 (23.3) | 173896 (412.7) |
| Sufficient number of tests as 200 000; =0.90 | |||||
| Detecting mode | 14988 (114.6) | 176771 (385.7) | 6419 (80.7) | 1787 (41.1) | 153578 (351.7) |
| Risk‐based | 14492 (123.9) | 177427 (431.4) | 6212 (80.3) | 1790 (41.7) | 154280 (364.3) |
| Symptom‐based | 14742 (119.0) | 177124 (400.1) | 6318 (70.9) | 1788 (38.3) | 153925 (365.3) |
| Severe‐only | 5971 (71.8) | 189521 (388.4) | 2561 (52.0) | 1913 (41.2) | 166453 (405.0) |
| Universal random | 3048 (49.9) | 193644 (396.6) | 1315 (39.3) | 1954 (41.4) | 170621 (408.5) |
Note: The assumed number of true infected cases near the peak of the pandemic is 175 000, and the population is eight million. The test false negative rate is 0.3 and the test positive rate is 0.01. Results are based on 100 repetitions. is the probability for a person of being asymptomatic after being infected.