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. 2021 Dec 10;11:23775. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-02622-3

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Analysis is based on the criterion aiming to detect an increase in the mean of expected cases equal or higher than 50%. Red dots correspond to dates that, based on EVI, an early warning was issued indicating that a rise in the COVID-19 cases is expected. Data are presented on the original scale (1a) and the logarithmic scale (1b) which facilitates the comparison of the steepness of the epidemic curve between the different waves.