Table 3 –
Predictors of opioid overdose among New Jersey Medicaid beneficiaries, 2014–2019.
| Covariate | Model 1 ARR (95% CI) | Model 2 ARR (95% CI) | Model 3 ARR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Year | 1.20 (1.19, 1.22) | 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) | 1.07 (1.06, 1.09) |
|
| |||
| Age | |||
| 12–24 | 0.16 (0.14, 0.18) | 0.42 (0.37, 0.47) | 0.93 (0.82, 1.05) |
| 25–39 | 1.50 (1.39, 1.62) | 2.09 (1.92, 2.28) | 1.69 (1.55, 1.83) |
| 40–55 | 1.29 (1.19, 1.39) | 1.42 (1.31, 1.54) | 1.15 (1.07, 1.25) |
| 56–64 (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|
| |||
| Racial/Ethnic Group | |||
| Black | 0.45 (0.41, 0.51) | 0.49 (0.44, 0.55) | 0.55 (0.49, 0.62) |
| Hispanic | 0.31 (0.26, 0.37) | 0.42 (0.35, 0.50) | 0.59 (0.49, 0.70) |
| Other/Unknown | 0.19 (0.17, 0.23) | 0.33 (0.29, 0.39) | 0.54 (0.46, 0.64) |
| White (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|
| |||
| Year x Racial/Ethnic Group | |||
| Year x Black | 1.10 (1.07, 1.14) | 1.13 (1.10, 1.17) | 1.12 (1.08, 1.15) |
| Year x Hispanic | 1.03 (0.98, 1.08) | 1.06 (1.01, 1.11) | 1.06 (1.01, 1.11) |
| Year x Other/Unknown | 1.02 (0.98, 1.07) | 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) | 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) |
| Year x White (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|
| |||
| Gender | |||
| Male | 2.68 (2.54, 2.83) | 2.23 (2.11, 2.35) | 1.80 (1.71, 1.90) |
| Female (Ref) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|
| |||
| SUD Comorbiditiesa | |||
| Alcohol Use Disorder | --- | 2.94 (2.72, 3.17) | 1.88 (1.77, 1.99) |
| Cannabis Use Disorder | --- | 1.87 (1.73, 2.02) | 1.35 (1.27, 1.44) |
| Benzodiazepine Use Disorder | --- | 3.36 (3.07, 3.68) | 1.93 (1.80, 2.06) |
| Opioid Use Disorder | --- | --- | 42.64 (39.47, 46.07) |
|
| |||
| Psychiatric Comorbiditiesa | |||
| Schizophrenia | --- | 0.90 (0.82, 0.99) | 1.01 (0.92, 1.10) |
| Bipolar Disorder | --- | 1.46 (1.35, 1.57) | 1.16 (1.09, 1.24) |
| Major Depression | --- | 2.35 (2.19, 2.51) | 1.47 (1.39, 1.55) |
|
| |||
| Medical Comorbiditiesa | |||
| HIV | --- | 1.07 (0.94, 1.21) | 0.95 (0.85, 1.06) |
| Hepatitis C | --- | 3.34 (3.09, 3.60) | 1.71 (1.61, 1.81) |
| Diabetes | --- | 1.32 (1.24, 1.41) | 1.38 (1.29, 1.46) |
| Heart Failure | --- | 1.56 (1.41, 1.73) | 1.54 (1.40, 1.69) |
| Cerebrovascular Disease | --- | 1.09 (0.98, 1.21) | 1.06 (0.97, 1.17) |
| Chronic Pain Diagnosis | --- | 1.38 (1.30, 1.46) | 1.11 (1.05, 1.17) |
| Asthma | --- | 1.28 (1.19, 1.38) | 1.09 (1.01, 1.17) |
| COPD | --- | 1.28 (1.17, 1.40) | 1.10 (1.01, 1.20) |
| Pneumonia | --- | 2.32 (2.13, 2.51) | 2.15 (2.00, 2.30) |
| Sleep Apnea | --- | 0.59 (0.52, 0.67) | 0.65 (0.57, 0.75) |
Note. N = 4,364,424. ARR = adjusted rate ratio; CI = confidence interval; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SUD = substance use disorder. Adjusted rate ratios were estimated using GEE Poisson regression.
a
Reference for each comorbid condition is the absence of the condition.