Table 5.
Operating characteristics of different prediction rules for 30-day and in-hospital mortality.
| Model | Score | 30-day mortality | In-hospital mortality | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Youden Index | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Youden Index | ||
| (A) Derivation cohort | |||||||||||
| CURB-65 | ≥ 1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | NA | 0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 12.5 | NA | 0 |
| ≥ 2 | 86.4 | 37.8 | 10.2 | 97.1 | 0.242 | 84.4 | 39.0 | 16.5 | 94.6 | 0.234 | |
| ≥ 3 | 43.9 | 78.7 | 14.4 | 94.5 | 0.226 | 43.1 | 79.8 | 23.4 | 90.8 | 0.229 | |
| ≥ 4 | 15.2 | 95.5 | 21.7 | 93.2 | 0.107 | 14.7 | 96.1 | 34.8 | 88.7 | 0.108 | |
| 5 | 3.0 | 99.8 | 50.0 | 92.6 | 0.028 | 1.8 | 99.7 | 50.0 | 87.7 | 0.015 | |
| PSI class | ≥ II | 100.0 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 100.0 | 0.001 | 100.0 | 0.1 | 12.5 | 100.0 | 0.001 |
| ≥ III | 100.0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 100.0 | 0.084 | 100.0 | 8.9 | 13.6 | 100.0 | 0.089 | |
| ≥ IV | 98.5 | 36.0 | 11.2 | 99.7 | 0.345 | 98.2 | 37.9 | 18.4 | 99.3 | 0.361 | |
| V | 59.1 | 84.7 | 24.1 | 96.2 | 0.438 | 54.1 | 86.5 | 36.4 | 93.0 | 0.406 | |
| CHUBA | ≥ 1 | 95.5 | 38.3 | 11.3 | 99.0 | 0.338 | 95.4 | 40.2 | 18.6 | 98.4 | 0.356 |
| ≥ 2 | 77.3 | 68.9 | 16.9 | 97.4 | 0.462 | 74.3 | 71.0 | 26.8 | 95.1 | 0.453 | |
| ≥ 3 | 56.1 | 88.3 | 28.2 | 96.1 | 0.444 | 49.5 | 90.0 | 41.2 | 92.6 | 0.395 | |
| ≥ 4 | 25.8 | 97.4 | 44.7 | 94.1 | 0.232 | 20.2 | 97.9 | 57.9 | 89.6 | 0.181 | |
| 5 | 4.6 | 99.8 | 60.0 | 92.7 | 0.044 | 3.7 | 99.9 | 80.0 | 87.9 | 0.036 | |
| (B) Validation cohort | |||||||||||
| CURB-65 | ≥ 1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | NA | 0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | NA | 0 |
| ≥ 2 | 90.7 | 29.9 | 9.4 | 97.6 | 0.206 | 89.6 | 30.2 | 11.5 | 96.7 | 0.198 | |
| ≥ 3 | 64.0 | 68.6 | 14.0 | 96.0 | 0.326 | 62.3 | 69.0 | 16.8 | 94.8 | 0.313 | |
| ≥ 4 | 27.9 | 91.6 | 21.1 | 94.1 | 0.195 | 26.4 | 91.8 | 24.6 | 92.5 | 0.182 | |
| 5 | 7.0 | 98.9 | 33.3 | 93.0 | 0.059 | 6.6 | 99.0 | 38.9 | 91.3 | 0.056 | |
| CHUBA | ≥ 1 | 98.8 | 18.9 | 8.9 | 99.5 | 0.177 | 99.1 | 19.3 | 11.0 | 99.5 | 0.184 |
| ≥ 2 | 91.9 | 56.2 | 14.4 | 98.9 | 0.481 | 88.7 | 56.8 | 17.1 | 98.0 | 0.455 | |
| ≥ 3 | 64.0 | 81.3 | 21.5 | 96.6 | 0.453 | 60.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 95.3 | 0.422 | |
| ≥ 4 | 29.1 | 93.8 | 27.2 | 94.3 | 0.229 | 25.5 | 93.8 | 29.3 | 92.6 | 0.193 | |
| 5 | 2.3 | 99.2 | 18.2 | 92.7 | 0.015 | 1.9 | 99.1 | 18.2 | 90.9 | 0.010 | |
Data are presented as percentage or n.
CURB-65, confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65; PSI, pneumonia severity index; CHUBA, confusion, hypoxemia, urea, bedridden, albumin; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; NA, not applicable.