Table 4.
Model outcomes.
| S1: No DAAs | S2: Status-quo | S3: Elimination | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costs (million Australian dollars) | |||
| Total direct costs | $3,007 | $3,479 | $3,722 |
| ($2,431 - $3,890) | ($3,167 - $3,857) | ($3,282 - $4,136) | |
| Testing | $188 | $213 | $237 |
| ($125 - $275) | ($123 - $349) | ($116 - $430) | |
| Treatment | $519 | $2,168 | $2,479 |
| ($519 - $519) | ($2,142 - $2,168) | ($2,349 - $2,504) | |
| Disease management | $2,300 | $1,098 | $1,006 |
| ($1,700 - $3,215) | ($827 - $1,473) | ($752 - $1,346) | |
| Lost productivity costs | $26,135 | $19,963 | $19,448 |
| ($14,907 - $41,715) | ($11,800 - $31,169) | ($11,526 - $30,401) | |
| Absenteeism + presenteeism | $4,417 | $4,173 | $4,128 |
| ($4,044 - $4,772) | ($3,821 - $4,550) | ($3,780 - $4,510) | |
| Premature deaths | $21,718 | $15,790 | $15,320 |
| ($10,371 - $37,510) | ($7,514 - $27,125) | ($7,284 - $26,362) | |
| Difference in costs (million Australian dollars) | |||
| Total direct costs | $472 | $715 | |
| (-$100 - $858) | ($44 - $1,194) | ||
| Testing | $25 | $49 | |
| ($1 - $75) | ($1 - $157) | ||
| Treatment | $1649 | $1,960 | |
| ($1,623 - $1,649) | ($1,830 - $1,985) | ||
| Disease management | -$1202 | -$1,294 | |
| (-$1,742 - -$853) | (-$1,881 - -$917) | ||
| Productivity gains | $6,172 | $6,687 | |
| ($3,165 - $10,310) | ($3,442 - $11,108) | ||
| Absenteeism + presenteeism | $244 | $289 | |
| ($222 - $270) | ($261 - $314) | ||
| Premature deaths | $5,928 | $6,398 | |
| ($2,917 - $10,084) | ($3,152 - $10,841) | ||
| Cost-effectiveness | |||
| Total QALYs | 221.76 | 221.84 | 221.86 |
| (221.66 - 221.86) | (221.73 - 221.96) | (221.74 - 221.97) | |
| Cost per QALY gained at 2030 (compared with counterfactual scenario) | $5,752 | $7,270 | |
| (-$1,273 - $12,672) | ($295 - $12,913) | ||
| Cost per QALY gained at 2030 (compared with status-quo | $12,150 | ||
| ($4,869 - $26,532) | |||
| Net economic benefit | |||
| At 2030 (millions) | $5,700 | $5,972 | |
| ($2,376 - $10,190) | ($2,356 - $10,836) | ||
| Tests and treatment | |||
| Total number of antibody tests | 3,194,000 | 3,566,000 | 3,739,000 |
| (1,912,000 - 4,944,000) | (1,708,437 - 6,329,000) | (1,604,000 - 7,909,000) | |
| Total number of RNA tests | 255,000 | 273,000 | 413,000 |
| (255,000 - 255,000) | (273,000 - 273,000) | (239,000 - 413,000) | |
| Total number of treatments | 47,700 | 181,300 | 210,800 |
| (47,700 - 47,700) | (175,300 - 181,300) | (182,800 - 216,100) | |
| Epidemiology | |||
| People with hepatitis C in 2030 | 147,400 | 44,500 | 8,500 |
| (113,900 - 180,400) | (9,900 - 85,000) | (700 - 52,500) | |
| New infections 2015 | 4,537 | 4,536 | 4,536 |
| (3,344 - 5,980) | (3,343 - 5,979) | (3,343 - 5,979) | |
| New infections 2030 | 4,665 | 3,212 | 906 |
| (3,224 - 6,294) | (874 - 5,352) | (59 - 4,023) | |
| HCV-related deaths 2015 | 786 | 786 | 786 |
| (345 - 1,496) | (345 - 1,495) | (345 - 1,495) | |
| HCV-related deaths 2030 | 1,424 | 362 | 219 |
| (806 - 2,063) | (187 - 548) | (106 - 383) | |
| New infections 2016-2030 | 68,800 | 53,100 | 43,100 |
| (48,900 - 92,100) | (30,000 - 78,500) | (23,400 - 71,300) | |
| HCV-related deaths 2016-2030 | 18,540 | 10,040 | 9,110 |
| (9,360 - 29,540) | (5,150 - 16,050) | (4,650 - 14,670) | |
| HCV-prevalence among PWID in 2030 (%) | 49% | 28% | 6% |
| (39% - 58%) | (7% - 43%) | (0% - 30%) | |
| HCV-prevalence among the whole population in 2030 (%) | 0.89% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| (0.68% - 1.08%) | (0.06% - .51%) | (0.00% - 0.31%) | |
| Cases averted compared to counterfactual | 15,700 | 25,700 | |
| (11,900 - 19,900) | (18,900 - 29,100) | ||
| Deaths averted compared to counterfactual | 8,500 | 9,430 | |
| (4,300 - 14,000) | (4,780 - 15,380) | ||
| Progress towards targets | |||
| Reduction in incidence by 2030 (compared to 2015 levels) | -3% | 29% | 80% |
| (-7% - 3%) | (9% - 74%) | (31% - 98%) | |
| Reduction in mortality by 2030 (compared to 2015 levels) | -81% | 54% | 72% |
| (-136% - -32%) | (29% - 78%) | (53% - 84%) | |