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. 2021 Dec 14;12:7239. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27369-3

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© This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2021

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Fig. 1 — The black dots indicate log-likelihood estimates of the fitted stochastic epidemiological model with the corresponding fixed value of s, and the black curve is a smoothing spline through these log-likelihoods (see Methods). The dashed line shows the maximum-likelihood estimate, and the gray box shows the 95% CI. The red intervals show the estimates from the population-genetic model for these countries, with median 90% and 95% CrI (cf. Fig. 5). A D614G in the United Kingdom; B B.1.1.7 in the United Kingdom; C R.1 in Japan; D D614G in the Netherlands; E B.1.1.7 in the Netherlands; and F B.1.351 in the Netherlands.