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. 2021 Dec 14;12:7239. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27369-3

Fig. 3. Mechanistic model fit to B.1.1.7 data in the Netherlands and UK.

Fig. 3

Panels A–H are as in Fig. 2, but now for the B.1.1.7 variant. In total, 304892 and 20246 sequences were used for UK and Netherlands, respectively. Panels G and H show the profile-likelihood results for the time-horizon analysis at a sequence of dates. The likelihood profiles (cf. Fig. 1) are plotted vertically, where one unit in log-likelihood space corresponds to a day in calendar time. The likelihood profiles intersect with the gray vertical lines at the boundaries of the 95% CI. The horizontal red line indicates s = 0. The CIs marked with a star (*) have a lower bound above s = 0.