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. 2021 Oct 14;27(12):2127–2135. doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01548-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a, All new PCR-positive cases by vaccination/reinfection status over time (n = 15,434). b, Distribution of Ct values in all PCR-positive cases ≥14 d after second dose (n = 1,736). c, Probability that each new PCR-positive case in b falls into the higher viral shedding class over time. d, Association between Ct values and time from second dose. Note: Boxes in a are median (IQR); b shows observed Ct values with the marginal density (black) and the densities estimated from a two-component mixture distribution. In a, the box plots show median values and upper and lower quartiles of the distribution, with whiskers extending from the hinge to the largest and smallest value no further than 1.5 times the IQR. In c, dotted lines show categorical effects of pre-specified calendar periods reflecting B.1.1.7 dominance and early and late B.1.617.2 dominance (Extended Data Fig. 1); the solid line shows a continuous calendar time effect (linear on the log-odds scale). In d, months since second dose was truncated at the 95th percentile to avoid the undue influence of outliers. Spearman’s ρ = −0.09 (P = 0.004, two-sided t-test).