Table 1.
Effectiveness in individuals older than 18 years of age in B.1.1.7- and B.1.617.2-dominant periods
| BNT162b2: one dose ≥21 d | ChAdOx1: one dose ≥21 d | BNT162b2: second dose 0–13 d ago | ChAdOx1: second dose 0–13 d ago | BNT162b2: second dose ≥14 d | ChAdOx1: second dose ≥14 d | Not vaccinated, previously positivea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VE: all infections | |||||||
| 1 December 2020–16 May 2021 (B.1.1.7) | 59% (52–65%) | 63% (55–69%) | 77% (66–84%) | 72% (50–84%) | 78% (68–84%) | 79% (56–90%) | 60% (50–68%) |
| 17 May 2021 (B.1.617.2) | 57% (50–63%) | 46% (35–55%) | 82% (75–87%) | 71% (64–77%) | 80% (77–83%) | 67% (62–71%) | 72% (58–82%) |
| Heterogeneity P | 0.60 | 0.004 | 0.29 | 0.99 | 0.50 | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| VE: Ct <30 | |||||||
| 1 December 2020–16 May 2021 (B.1.1.7) | 70% (65–74%) | 74% (69–79%) | 83% (75–89%) | 79% (62–88%) | 94% (91–96%) | 86% (71–93%) | 87% (84–90%) |
| 17 May 2021 (B.1.617.2) | 62% (56–68%) | 50% (41–59%) | 81% (73–86%) | 69% (61–76%) | 84% (82–86%) | 70% (65–73%) | 77% (66–85%) |
| Heterogeneity P | 0.04 | <0.0001 | 0.57 | 0.25 | <0.0001 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| VE: self-reported symptoms | |||||||
| 1 December 2020–16 May 2021 (B.1.1.7) | 73% (68–76%) | 73% (67–77%) | 92% (88–95%) | 84% (72–91%) | 97% (96–98%) | 97% (93–98%) | 80% (75–84%) |
| 17 May 2021 (B.1.617.2) | 58% (51–64%) | 40% (28–50%) | 93% (90–95%) | 73% (66–79%) | 84% (82–86%) | 71% (66–74%) | 82% (73–88%) |
| Heterogeneity P | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.71 | 0.08 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.59 |
aRe-infection will be a variable amount of time previously, but it was not possible to split this owing to low numbers.
Note: All estimates (VE = 100% × (1 odds ratio)) were obtained from a generalized linear model with a logit link comparing to the reference category of ‘Not vaccinated, not previously positive and ≥21 d before vaccination’ and using clustered robust standard errors. Heterogeneity P values were obtained using the two-sided Wald test without adjustment for multiple comparisons. Calendar time was split into two epochs when most cases detected in the survey were ORF1ab + N positive (B.1.1.7 compatible) and then when triple positives became dominant (B.1.617.2 compatible) (Extended Data Fig. 1). Estimates from the former are similar to those from individuals aged ≥16 years previously published on data to 8 May 2021 but with slightly wider 95% CIs due to splitting time after the second dose at 14 d in this analysis. See Supplementary Table 4 for unadjusted heterogeneity P values. VE post-second doses changes over time from vaccination (see Fig. 2 and Extended Data Figs. 4 and 5 for changes in individuals aged 18–64 years), so estimates in this table are an average over follow-up included in this analysis.