Table 6.
Risk factors of post‐ERCP pancreatitis
| Univariate analysis † | Multivariate analysis ‡ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 95% CI | P value | OR | 95% CI | P value | |
| Patient‐related risk factors | ||||||
| Female sex | 2.237 | 1.583–3.161 | <0.001 | 2.239 | 1.546–3.243 | <0.001 |
| Younger age (<50 years of age) | 0.732 | 0.292–1.834 | 0.504 | 0.703 | 0.271–1.822 | 0.468 |
| ASA grade III or IV | 0.879 | 0.516–1.497 | 0.638 | — | — | — |
| Previous acute pancreatitis | 0.626 | 0.349–1.125 | 0.114 | 0.881 | 0.462–1.683 | 0.702 |
| Normal serum bilirubin | 0.915 | 0.642–1.303 | 0.623 | 1.032 | 0.689–1.546 | 0.878 |
| No coexistence of acute cholangitis | 1.630 | 1.084–2.451 | 0.019 | — | — | — |
| Naïve papilla | 5.286 | 3.296–8.480 | <0.001 | 3.047 | 1.803–5.150 | <0.001 |
| Surgically altered gastrointestinal anatomy | 2.371 | 1.352–4.156 | 0.002 | 2.538 | 1.342–4.802 | 0.004 |
| Peripapillary diverticulum | 0.908 | 0.608–1.356 | 0.637 | — | — | — |
| Procedure‐related risk factors | ||||||
| Diagnostic ERCP | 2.170 | 1.396–3.372 | <0.001 | — | — | — |
| Elective ERCP | 1.750 | 1.087–2.817 | 0.020 | 1.364 | 0.801–2.324 | 0.254 |
| Procedure time after reaching the papilla | <0.001 § | 1.009 | 1.001–1.017 | 0.035 | ||
| ERCP by trainee | 0.978 | 0.690–1.386 | 0.901 | — | — | — |
| Contrast‐guided cannulation | 1.273 | 0.903–1.794 | 0.168 | — | — | — |
| Cannulation attempts (≧10) | 3.155 | 2.183–4.561 | <0.001 | 1.118 | 0.700–1.786 | 0.641 |
| Minor papilla cannulation | 1.490 | 0.341–6.514 | 0.646 | — | — | — |
| Pancreatic duct injection | 3.992 | 2.805–5.681 | <0.001 | 2.396 | 1.565–3.669 | <0.001 |
| Pancreatic guidewire passage | 2.989 | 2.111–4.233 | <0.001 | 1.340 | 0.854–2.102 | 0.202 |
| Intraductal ultrasonography | 2.191 | 1.426–3.366 | <0.001 | 1.641 | 1.024–2.629 | 0.040 |
| Endoscopic sphincterotomy | 1.189 | 0.812–1.740 | 0.373 | — | — | — |
| Endoscopic papillary balloon dilatation | 0.563 | 0.244–1.301 | 0.173 | — | — | — |
| Precut sphincterotomy | 3.815 | 1.615–9.016 | 0.006 | 1.028 | 0.389–2.717 | 0.956 |
| Endoscopic stone extraction | 0.704 | 0.473–1.049 | 0.083 | — | — | — |
| Endoscopic biliary drainage | 0.820 | 0.581–1.155 | 0.255 | — | — | — |
| Pancreatic duct brushing cytology | 2.577 | 0.971–6.837 | 0.064 | — | — | — |
| Pancreatic stenting | 1.285 | 0.791–2.087 | 0.310 | — | — | — |
| Prophylactic pancreatic stenting | 2.399 | 1.345–4.277 | 0.002 | 0.935 | 0.478–1.827 | 0.843 |
†
χ2 test.
‡
Logistic regression analysis.
§
Mann–Whitney U test.
ASA, American Society of Anesthesiologists; CI; confidence interval; ERCP, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; OR, odds ratio.