Table 4.

Predicted probabilities of outcomes of patients treated by trial participants^*

Outcomes	Game			Control
	Pre-trial	Post-trial		Pre-trial	Post-trial		Difference-indifference
	Probability (95% CI)	Probability (95% CI)	p	Probability (95% CI)	Probability (95% CI)	p	Probability	p
Primary outcome
Under-triage	0.58 (0.48–0.68)	0.41 (0.31–0.50)	0.015	0.56 (0.46–0.67)	0.49 (0.39–0.59)	0.35	0.10	0.18
Secondary outcomes
Death during first episode of care	0.08 (0.04–0.13)	0.06 (0.02–0.10)	0.45	0.07 (0.02–0.12)	0.12 (0.07–0.17)	0.27	0.07	0.15
Death within 30 days	0.19 (0.12–0.25)	0.12 (0.07–0.18)	0.17	0.27 (0.17–0.37)	0.23 (0.16–0.30)	0.58	0.03	0.48
Readmission within 30 days	0.19 (0.12–0.26)	0.17 (0.10–0.24)	0.73	0.09 (0.03–0.15)	0.17 (0.10–0.23)	0.13	0.10	0.10
Sensitivity analyses
Analysis restricted to physicians who completed study tasks
Under-triage	0.61 (0.51–0.72)	0.40 (0.30–0.51)	<0.001	0.58 (0.46–0.71)	0.49 (0.38–0.60)	0.26	0.12	0.17
Level III-V trauma centers reclassified as non-trauma centers
Under-triage	0.55 (0.46–0.63)	0.47 (0.38–0.56)	0.20	0.58 (0.49–0.68)	0.5 (0.41–0.58)	0.16	0	0.83

^*Predicted probabilities of outcomes from a series of mixed effects logistic regression models, clustered at the physician-level. The independent variable was the exposure of the physician. We adjusted for the year of the patient’s presentation and included the trial period as an interaction term. We did not include the trial (i.e. first or second) because of collinearity with the year of presentation.