Table 3.
Deterministic sensitivity analyses..
| Scenario | ICER (US$/QALY) | |
|---|---|---|
| RCT | RWD | |
| Base-case | 33,077 | 25,107 |
| Clinical outcomes | ||
| Survival* | ||
| RFS [Best case; Weibull (RCT), Weibull (RWD)] | 31,260 | 22,948 |
| RFS [Worst case; Log-normal (RCT), Generalized gamma (RWD)] | 33,077 | 31,695 |
| OS [Best case; Weibull (RCT), Generalized gamma (RWD)) | 31,009 | 22,587 |
| OS [Worst case; Generalized gamma (RCT), Log-normal (RWD)] | 38,831 | 27,545 |
| Proportion of curable recurrence | ||
| Considering a portion of TACE as a curative treatment (CIK 75.8% vs No Tx 72.6%) | 36,293 | 29,237 |
| Health-related quality of life | ||
| Health state utilities | ||
| Cancer free and incurable recurrence state (Upper bound) | 31,876 | 24,978 |
| Cancer free and incurable recurrence state (Lower bound) | 33,971 | 25,236 |
| Costs | ||
| Medical costs from other healthcare systems | ||
| The USA [derived from Cardier et al., (23)] | 38,425 | 9,505 |
| France [derived from Cardier et al., (23)] | 34,617 | 25,626 |
| Italy [derived from Rognoni et al., (24)] | 34,141 | 22,197 |
| End-of-life cost | ||
| Upper bound (+20%) | 32,930 | 24,695 |
| Lower bound (–20%) | 33,223 | 25,187 |
| Analytic perspective (Societal perspective) | ||
| Including productivity loss cost | 25,562 | 19,858 |
| Model parameters | ||
| Time horizon (15 years) | 41,628 | 32,730 |
| Time horizon (25 years) | 28,799 | 21,263 |
| Annual discount rate (3%) | 27,617 | 20,336 |
| Annual discount rate (7.5%) | 40,926 | 31,973 |
ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; RCT, randomized controlled trial; RWD, real-world data; RFS, recurrence-free survival; OS, overall survival; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization.
*To see the uncertainty from the selected survival curve, we carried out a sensitivity analysis that calculated the lowest (best case) and the highest (worst case) ICER by applying each parametric survival distribution to OS and RFS.