Table 1.
Observed, Expected, and Excess Mortality Rates in Long-Term Care (LTC) Residents by Family or Friend Contact Status, During the Pandemic Period of March 14 to September 30, 2020
| Month | Residents With Personal Contact With Family or Friends∗ |
Residents Without Personal Contact With Family or Friends∗ |
Difference-in-Differences | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate/1000 Residents |
Excess Mortality |
Rate/1000 Residents |
Excess Mortality |
||||
| Observed | Expected† | Absolute Rate Difference (95% CI) | Observed | Expected† | Absolute Rate Difference (95% CI) | ||
| Overall | 32.8 | 28.0 | 4.8 (4.0, 5.6)‡ | 34.3 | 21.8 | 12.6 (8.9, 16.2)§ | 7.8 (4.1, 11.5)ǁ |
| March | 38.5 | 33.3 | 5.2 (2.3, 8.1) | 50.3 | 25.7 | 24.7 (5.2, 44.1) | 19.4 (−0.2, 39.1) |
| April | 48.2 | 28.2 | 20.0 (17.0, 23.0) | 55.1 | 23.5 | 31.6 (13.6, 49.5) | 11.5 (−6.7, 29.8) |
| May | 32.4 | 26.8 | 5.6 (2.9, 8.3) | 38.1 | 19.9 | 18.2 (3.8, 32.6) | 12.5 (−2.1, 27.2) |
| June | 26.1 | 26.1 | 0.0 (−2.5, 2.6) | 34.9 | 21.5 | 13.3 (0.1, 26.6) | 13.3 (−0.2, 26.8) |
| July | 26.1 | 27.1 | −1.0 (−3.6, 1.7) | 27.3 | 22.3 | 5.0 (−6.7, 16.6) | 5.9 (−6.0, 17.8) |
| August | 26.7 | 27.5 | −0.8 (−3.4, 1.9) | 24.3 | 20.5 | 3.8 (−6.5, 14.1) | 4.5 (−6.1, 15.2) |
| September | 29.7 | 26.9 | 2.8 (0.1, 5.5) | 28.7 | 21.1 | 7.6 (−2.6, 17.9) | 4.8 (−5.8, 15.4) |
As of March 1, 2020, a total of 77,291 residents lived in Ontario's 623 licensed LTC homes, where they received personal and nursing care, subsidized accommodations, and prescription medications through a publicly funded program. At the start of the pandemic period (March 14, 2020), 67,589 Ontario nursing home residents were alive and had an annual Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Dataset (RAI-MDS) assessment—66,039 had personal contact with family and friends and 1550 had no contact.
Expected mortality rates were estimated based on pre-COVID period (January 1, 2017–March 13, 2020) trends using segmented regression models with autocorrelated errors and seasonality adjustment.
Relative percentage change, calculated as (observed – expected)/expected, of 17.1% (95% CI 14.1, 20.1).
Relative percentage change of 57.8% (95% CI 36.8, 78.8).
Relative difference-in-difference, calculated as [(34.3/21.8)/(32.8/28.0)], of 34.8%.