Table 4.

Model output and probability for different migration models inferred through migrate-n

Model	Bezier	Harmonic	Log Bayes factor	Rank	Model probability
3pop_downall (B)	−13 379	−6588.7	0	1	0.99999
3pop_upstream (C)	−13 392	−6147.7	−13.660	2	<0.001
3pop_unrestrict (A)	−13 444	−6496.0	−64.740	3	<0.001
2pop_unrestrict (D)	−13 764	−6704.8	−385.17	4	<0.001
2pop_down (E)	−13 776	−6790.5	−397.26	5	<0.001

Probability was calculated as outlined in Beerli and Palczewski (2010). Shaded row is model used to calculate the log bayes factor as described in Beerli and Palczewski (2010) as well. Letters correspond to model letters in Figure 4.