. 2021 Dec 18;59(4):1327–1350. doi: 10.1007/s11187-021-00586-2

Table 2.

Regression results (population weighted)

Variables	(1) Historical loan rejection (probit)		(2) Scarred by rejection (probit with sample selection correction)		(3) Covid-19 loan application (probit with sample selection correction)		(4) Covid-19 loan acceptance (GOT) (probit with sample selection correction)		(5) Covid-19 government guarantee (GOT_GOVT) (probit with sample selection correction)
Variables	Coeff	dy/dx	Coeff	dy/dx	Coeff	dy/dx	Coeff	dy/dx	Coeff	dy/dx
Scarred by rejection					0.667***	0.159	− 1.317***	− 0.143	− 0.522	− 0.048
					(0.189)		(0.249)		(0.454)
Survey wave (base: Q2 2018)
Q3 2018	0.023	0.002	0.177	0.054
	(0.104)		(0.310)
Q4 2018	0.088	0.008	0.274	0.081
	(0.111)		(0.303)
Q1 2019	− 0.160	− 0.012	0.425	0.121
	(0.115)		(0.333)
Q2 2019	− 0.035	− 0.003	0.110	0.034
	(0.106)		(0.293)
Q3 2019	− 0.059	− 0.005	− 0.122	− 0.039
	(0.113)		(0.324)
Q4 2019	− 0.169	− 0.012	0.626*	0.168
	(0.109)		(0.331)
Q1 2020	− 0.086	− 0.007	0.293	0.086
	(0.110)		(0.294)
Q2 2020	0.052	0.005	0.467	0.131
	(0.107)		(0.292)
Q3 2020	− 0.014	− 0.001	0.181	0.055	0.257***	0.060	0.357	0.044	0.293	0.028
	(0.108)		(0.309)		(0.080)		(0.231)		(0.303)
ln(sales)	0.010	0.001	0.019	0.005	0.254***	0.060	0.409***	0.044	− 0.353	− 0.032
	(0.022)		(0.076)		(0.037)		(0.124)		(0.276)
Employment size (base: 1 employee)
1–9	0.117**	0.010	− 0.470***	− 0.139	− 0.148	− 0.034	− 0.538**	− 0.065	0.793*	0.072
	(0.057)		(0.163)		(0.097)		(0.249)		(0.469)
10–49	− 0.000	0.000	− 0.638**	− 0.194	− 0.217	− 0.049	− 1.145***	− 0.187	1.049	0.085
	(0.087)		(0.249)		(0.144)		(0.335)		(0.737)
50–99	− 0.182	− 0.012	− 1.425***	− 0.453	− 0.352*	− 0.074	− 1.824***	− 0.375	1.956*	0.110
	(0.123)		(0.392)		(0.198)		(0.494)		(1.058)
100–199	− 0.213	− 0.014	− 1.069**	− 0.340	− 0.826***	− 0.141	− 3.400***	− 0.795	3.125	0.116
	(0.156)		(0.490)		(0.263)		(0.769)		(1.925)
200–249	− 0.217	− 0.014	− 1.522	− 0.482	− 1.110***	− 0.165
	(0.342)		(1.010)		(0.402)
Firm age (base: < 1 year)
1–2 years	− 0.108	− 0.009	0.484	0.154	0.173	0.048	0.535	0.055	− 1.409**	− 0.081
	(0.139)		(0.453)		(0.173)		(0.459)		(0.692)
2–5 years	− 0.027	− 0.003	0.558	0.175	− 0.062	− 0.016	0.423	0.046	− 0.137	− 0.003
	(0.141)		(0.438)		(0.174)		(0.524)		(0.735)
6–9 years	− 0.244*	− 0.019	0.688	0.210	− 0.093	− 0.024	− 0.183	− 0.028	− 0.888	− 0.034
	(0.144)		(0.472)		(0.181)		(0.424)		(0.658)
10–15 years	− 0.110	− 0.010	0.335	0.109	− 0.243	− 0.058	0.037	0.005	− 1.516**	− 0.094
	(0.138)		(0.428)		(0.173)		(0.466)		(0.686)
> 15 years	− 0.100	− 0.009	0.660*	0.203	− 0.316*	− 0.074	0.260	0.031	− 1.667**	− 0.115
	(0.131)		(0.400)		(0.162)		(0.447)		(0.649)
Legal status (base: sole proprietorship)
Partnership	− 0.042	− 0.003	− 0.212	− 0.064	0.122	0.029	− 0.114	− 0.017	0.507	0.025
	(0.077)		(0.233)		(0.170)		(0.535)		(0.443)
LLP	− 0.259**	− 0.017	0.123	0.034	− 0.002	0.000
	(0.106)		(0.414)		(0.283)
LTD Co	− 0.021	− 0.002	0.116	0.032	0.125	0.030	0.441*	0.049	− 0.619*	− 0.057
	(0.066)		(0.187)		(0.098)		(0.236)		(0.363)
Industry (base: agriculture)
Manufacturing	− 0.112	− 0.010	0.301	0.090	0.046	0.008	− 0.489	− 0.073	− 0.949*	− 0.079
	(0.108)		(0.312)		(0.183)		(0.460)		(0.576)
Construction	− 0.138	− 0.013	0.527*	0.149	0.336**	0.069	− 0.031	− 0.004	0.305	0.012
	(0.099)		(0.316)		(0.164)		(0.449)		(0.505)
Wholesale/retail	− 0.044	− 0.004	0.014	0.004	0.203	0.039	0.482	0.041	− 1.171**	− 0.110
	(0.103)		(0.309)		(0.159)		(0.492)		(0.503)
Hotel and catering	− 0.093	− 0.009	0.409	0.119	0.340**	0.070	0.693	0.052	− 1.662***	− 0.201
	(0.101)		(0.315)		(0.163)		(0.469)		(0.629)
Trans and Comms	− 0.187*	− 0.016	0.331	0.098	0.672***	0.158	− 0.527	− 0.081	− 0.559	− 0.037
	(0.111)		(0.339)		(0.177)		(0.517)		(0.535)
Business service	− 0.222**	− 0.019	0.221	0.067	0.425***	0.091	0.050	0.006	− 0.440	− 0.027
	(0.096)		(0.319)		(0.161)		(0.470)		(0.473)
Health	− 0.326**	− 0.025	0.605	0.167	0.439**	0.094	0.724	0.053	− 0.435	− 0.027
	(0.127)		(0.477)		(0.216)		(0.603)		(0.683)
Other services	− 0.028	− 0.003	0.139	0.043	0.144	0.027	0.498	0.042	− 0.872*	− 0.069
	(0.106)		(0.310)		(0.170)		(0.436)		(0.512)
Region (base: Scotland)
North East	− 0.031	− 0.003	0.870**	0.276	− 0.094	− 0.024	0.805	0.049	− 0.787	− 0.195
	(0.134)		(0.381)		(0.215)		(0.527)		(0.691)
York and Humber	− 0.024	− 0.002	0.543	0.182	− 0.072	− 0.019	− 0.180	− 0.020	1.460**	0.186
	(0.114)		(0.340)		(0.174)		(0.471)		(0.597)
North West	− 0.077	− 0.006	0.773**	0.250	− 0.052	− 0.014	− 0.305	− 0.037	1.494***	0.188
	(0.115)		(0.346)		(0.184)		(0.557)		(0.498)
West Midlands	− 0.069	− 0.006	1.030***	0.316	0.032	0.009	− 0.434	− 0.056	1.317***	0.177
	(0.113)		(0.375)		(0.177)		(0.475)		(0.485)
East Midlands	− 0.039	− 0.003	0.799**	0.257	− 0.093	− 0.024	0.468	0.035	2.418***	0.216
	(0.116)		(0.374)		(0.181)		(0.444)		(0.605)
East England	− 0.112	− 0.009	0.710**	0.232	− 0.312*	− 0.074	− 0.844*	− 0.136	1.059	0.157
	(0.115)		(0.334)		(0.185)		(0.487)		(0.696)
Wales	− 0.040	− 0.003	0.486	0.164	− 0.085	− 0.022	− 0.211	− 0.024	0.957*	0.147
	(0.117)		(0.364)		(0.187)		(0.522)		(0.529)
South West	0.047	0.004	0.706**	0.231	− 0.345*	− 0.081	0.766	0.048	0.510	0.092
	(0.110)		(0.322)		(0.188)		(0.491)		(0.487)
London	− 0.085	− 0.007	0.631*	0.209	− 0.178	− 0.044	0.002	0.000	1.107***	0.161
	(0.107)		(0.324)		(0.165)		(0.477)		(0.390)
South East	− 0.031	− 0.003	1.083***	0.329	− 0.203	− 0.050	0.127	0.012	0.772*	0.127
	(0.105)		(0.299)		(0.169)		(0.432)		(0.425)
N. Ireland	− 0.154	− 0.012	0.411	0.140	− 0.160	− 0.040	− 0.841*	− 0.135	0.659	0.113
	(0.142)		(0.468)		(0.203)		(0.505)		(0.653)
PROFIT	− 0.089	− 0.007	− 0.134	− 0.038	0.054	0.013	− 0.263	− 0.029	1.143***	0.104
	(0.056)		(0.156)		(0.091)		(0.224)		(0.257)
Risk rating (base: minimum)
Low	0.189*	0.012	− 0.056	− 0.016			0.382	0.059	0.680*	0.054
	(0.097)		(0.312)				(0.369)		(0.372)
Average	0.217**	0.014	0.046	0.013			0.502	0.074	0.282	0.027
	(0.093)		(0.333)				(0.383)		(0.443)
Above average	0.293***	0.020	− 0.085	− 0.024			0.741*	0.097	− 0.115	− 0.013
	(0.096)		(0.350)				(0.443)		(0.504)
Not known	0.226**	0.015	0.076	0.021			0.172	0.029
	(0.108)		(0.358)				(0.482)
Sales growth (base: > 40%)
20 to 40%	− 0.191	− 0.022
	(0.161)
0 to 20%	− 0.277*	− 0.030
	(0.156)
No growth	− 0.426***	− 0.041
	(0.155)
< 0%	− 0.175	− 0.020
	(0.157)
FASTGROW	0.078	0.006
	(0.132)
Banking relationship (base: strong)
Fair	0.158**	0.010	0.436**	0.148
	(0.065)		(0.205)
Weak	0.595***	0.056	1.111***	0.319
	(0.077)		(0.224)
AIMGROW					0.170**	0.041
					(0.081)
FINPROBLEM					0.415***	0.099
					(0.098)
Inverse Mills ratios
Historical rejection			− 0.065	− 0.018	− 1.244***	− 0.296	1.007	0.109	− 1.607	− 0.147
			(0.695)		(0.368)		(0.944)		(1.035)
SOUGHT							0.998*	0.109	− 0.291	− 0.026
							(0.536)		(0.723)
GOT									− 1.458	− 0.133
									(1.148)
Constant	− 1.371***		− 1.337		0.239		− 4.326*		7.945**
	(0.261)		(1.703)		(0.758)		(2.300)		(3.556)
N Obs	30,577		1077		30,577		30,577		30,577
Censored N					5,052		1026		867
Wald χ²	137.18***		158.86***		260.90***		125.54***		114.59***
Pseudo R²	0.026		0.147		0.120		0.250		0.364
Log likelihood	− 555.75		− 67.16		− 253.54		− 18.45		− 12.27

Models 1 and 2 estimate historical rejection and scarring prior to Covid-19. Models 3 to 5 estimate loan demand, loan supply and use of government-guaranteed loan schemes during Covid-19. Full regression results including the selection equations are reported in the Online Appendix. * p < 0.10; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01. Asymptotic robust standard errors reported. Weights applied