Fig. 3.

Increasing salience of party identity in the United States. We looked at (A, D, and G) in-group favorability and (B, E, and H) affective polarization among White, Black, and Hispanic respondents in ANES data at each presidential election over the past eight decades. While in-group favorability toward racial in-group versus racial out-group declines over time among (A) White ($p<0.01,t=7.3$) and (D) Black ($p<0.01,t=3.5$) respondents, there is no significant change among Hispanic respondents (H). Affective polarization increases among (B) White ($p<0.01,t=8.2$), (E) Black ($p=0.016,t=3.1$), and (H) Hispanic ($p=0.021,t=2.9$) respondents, indicating a relative decline in the salience of racial identity and an increase in party identity among both the White and the Black groups, and a correspondingly weaker change among the Hispanic group. Sorting of racial groups along party lines has increased among (C) White ($p<0.01,t=3.7$) and (F) Black ($p<0.01,t=4.7$) respondents, but shows a much weaker change among (I) Hispanic respondents ($p=0.047,t=2.2$). Sorting is measured by the variance in party preference explained by racial identity.