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. 2021 Dec 21;4(12):e2139573. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.39573

Table. Hazard Ratios Estimated Using the FPCM and the Classic Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model.

Trial Experimental vs standard comparison Hazard ratio (95% CI) FPCM P valueb PFS of non–long-term responders in FPCM Source
Cox proportional hazards regression FPCMa LRF effect Short-term effect
Melanoma: first-line treatment
CheckMate-066 Nivolumab vs dacarbazine 0.41 (0.32-0.52) 0.40 (0.32-0.51) <.001 NA SFT Ascierto et, 201930
CheckMate-067 Nivolumab vs ipilimumab 0.59 (0.49-0.71) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Wolchok et al, 201731
0.56 (0.46-0.67) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Hodi et al, 20187
0.61 (0.51-0.74) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Larkin et al, 201932
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs ipilimumab alone 0.43 (0.35-0.53) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Wolchok et al, 201731
0.40 (0.33-0.49) 0.40 (0.33-0.49) <.001 NA SFT Hodi et al, 20187
0.41 (0.33-0.49) 0.41 (0.33-0.49) <.001 NA SFT Larkin et al, 201932
Melanoma: first line or later
Intergroup trial E1690 10 mg/kg vs 3 mg/kg of ipilimumab 0.86 (0.74-1.01) 0.87 (0.75-1.02) .09 NA NS Ascierto et al, 201733
Keynote-006 Pembrolizumab every 2 weeks vs ipilimumab 0.57 (0.46-0.69) 0.57 (0.47-0.69) <.001 NA SFT Robert et al, 20191
Pembrolizumab every 3 weeks vs ipilimumab 0.57 (0.47-0.70) 0.57 (0.47-0.70) <.001 NA SFT
Melanoma: second line or later
CheckMate-037 Nivolumab vs ICC 0.78 (0.59-1.02) Time varying .03 <.001 SDE Larkin et al, 201834
CA184-002 Ipilimumab plus GP100 vs GP100 0.85 (0.69-1.03) 0.84 (0.68-1.02) .08 NA SFT Hodi et al, 201035
NSCLC: first-line treatment
CA184-104 Ipilimumab plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy 0.90 (0.77-1.05) 0.90 (0.77-1.05) .18 NA NS Govindan et al, 201736
CheckMate-227 PDL1 ≥ 1% Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs chemotherapy 0.82 (0.70-0.98) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Hellman et al, 201937
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs nivolumab 0.83 (0.71-0.98) 0.83 (0.71-0.98) .02 NA SFT
CheckMate-227 Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs chemotherapy 0.78 (0.61-0.99) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE
PDL1 < 1% Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs nivolumab plus chemotherapy 1.00 (0.79-1.27) Time varying .06 <.001 SDE
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy 0.71 (0.56-0.90) 0.72 (0.57-0.91) .007 NA SFT
NSCLC: second line
CheckMate-017 Nivolumab vs docetaxel 0.64 (0.49-0.84) 0.64 (0.49-0.83) <.001 NA SFT Horn et al, 20172
0.65 (0.50-0.85) Time varying <.001 .009 SDE Antonia et al, 201920
CheckMate-057 Nivolumab vs docetaxel 0.92 (0.77-1.11) Time varying .004 <.001 SDE Horn et al, 20172
0.93 (0.77-1.11) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Antonia et al, 201920
NSCLC: second line or later
OAK Atezolizumab vs docetaxel 0.98 (0.87-1.11) Time varying <.001 <.001 SDE Fehrenbacher et al, 201838

Abbreviations: CA184-002, MDX-010 Antibody, MDX-1379 Melanoma Vaccine, or MDX-010/MDX-1379 Combination Treatment for Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma; CA184-104, Phase 3 Trial in Squamous Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Vs Placebo in Addition to Paclitaxel and Carboplatin; CheckMate-017, Study of BMS-936558 [Nivolumab] Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell NSCLC; CheckMate-037, A Study to Compare BMS-936558 to the Physician's Choice of Either Dacarbazine or Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Advanced Melanoma Patients That Have Progressed Following Anti-CTLA-4 Therapy; CheckMate-057, Study of BMS-936558 [Nivolumab] Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Metastatic Non-squamous NSCLC; CheckMate-066, Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Compared With Dacarbazine in Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma; CheckMate-067, Phase 3 Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab Versus Ipilimumab Alone in Previously Untreated Advanced Melanoma; E1690, Phase 3 Trial in Subjects With Metastatic Melanoma Comparing 3 mg/kg Ipilimumab Versus 10 mg/kg Ipilimumab; FPCM, flexible parametric cure model; GP100, glycoprotein 100; ICC, investigator choice chemotherapy; Keynote-006, Study of Pembrolizumab [MK-3475] in Participants With Progressive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Carcinoma, Melanoma, or Non–Small Cell Lung Carcinoma; LRF, long-term responder fraction; NA, not applicable; NS, nonsignificant; NSCLC, non–small cell lung cancer; OAK, Study of Atezolizumab Compared With Docetaxel in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Failed Platinum-Containing Therapy; PDL1, programmed cell death ligand 1; PFS, progression-free survival; SDE, significantly deleterious effect of the experimental treatment during early time points followed by a significant beneficial effect (direction of the effect varies over time); SFT, significantly in favor of the experimental treatment.

a

For models with time-dependent effects, a single hazard ratio may not provide a relevant measure of the treatment effect.

b

Treatment effect on the LRF was only tested for models with time-varying effects.