Table. Hazard Ratios Estimated Using the FPCM and the Classic Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model.
Trial | Experimental vs standard comparison | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | FPCM P valueb | PFS of non–long-term responders in FPCM | Source | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cox proportional hazards regression | FPCMa | LRF effect | Short-term effect | ||||
Melanoma: first-line treatment | |||||||
CheckMate-066 | Nivolumab vs dacarbazine | 0.41 (0.32-0.52) | 0.40 (0.32-0.51) | <.001 | NA | SFT | Ascierto et, 201930 |
CheckMate-067 | Nivolumab vs ipilimumab | 0.59 (0.49-0.71) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Wolchok et al, 201731 |
0.56 (0.46-0.67) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Hodi et al, 20187 | ||
0.61 (0.51-0.74) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Larkin et al, 201932 | ||
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs ipilimumab alone | 0.43 (0.35-0.53) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Wolchok et al, 201731 | |
0.40 (0.33-0.49) | 0.40 (0.33-0.49) | <.001 | NA | SFT | Hodi et al, 20187 | ||
0.41 (0.33-0.49) | 0.41 (0.33-0.49) | <.001 | NA | SFT | Larkin et al, 201932 | ||
Melanoma: first line or later | |||||||
Intergroup trial E1690 | 10 mg/kg vs 3 mg/kg of ipilimumab | 0.86 (0.74-1.01) | 0.87 (0.75-1.02) | .09 | NA | NS | Ascierto et al, 201733 |
Keynote-006 | Pembrolizumab every 2 weeks vs ipilimumab | 0.57 (0.46-0.69) | 0.57 (0.47-0.69) | <.001 | NA | SFT | Robert et al, 20191 |
Pembrolizumab every 3 weeks vs ipilimumab | 0.57 (0.47-0.70) | 0.57 (0.47-0.70) | <.001 | NA | SFT | ||
Melanoma: second line or later | |||||||
CheckMate-037 | Nivolumab vs ICC | 0.78 (0.59-1.02) | Time varying | .03 | <.001 | SDE | Larkin et al, 201834 |
CA184-002 | Ipilimumab plus GP100 vs GP100 | 0.85 (0.69-1.03) | 0.84 (0.68-1.02) | .08 | NA | SFT | Hodi et al, 201035 |
NSCLC: first-line treatment | |||||||
CA184-104 | Ipilimumab plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy | 0.90 (0.77-1.05) | 0.90 (0.77-1.05) | .18 | NA | NS | Govindan et al, 201736 |
CheckMate-227 PDL1 ≥ 1% | Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs chemotherapy | 0.82 (0.70-0.98) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Hellman et al, 201937 |
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs nivolumab | 0.83 (0.71-0.98) | 0.83 (0.71-0.98) | .02 | NA | SFT | ||
CheckMate-227 | Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs chemotherapy | 0.78 (0.61-0.99) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | |
PDL1 < 1% | Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs nivolumab plus chemotherapy | 1.00 (0.79-1.27) | Time varying | .06 | <.001 | SDE | |
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy | 0.71 (0.56-0.90) | 0.72 (0.57-0.91) | .007 | NA | SFT | ||
NSCLC: second line | |||||||
CheckMate-017 | Nivolumab vs docetaxel | 0.64 (0.49-0.84) | 0.64 (0.49-0.83) | <.001 | NA | SFT | Horn et al, 20172 |
0.65 (0.50-0.85) | Time varying | <.001 | .009 | SDE | Antonia et al, 201920 | ||
CheckMate-057 | Nivolumab vs docetaxel | 0.92 (0.77-1.11) | Time varying | .004 | <.001 | SDE | Horn et al, 20172 |
0.93 (0.77-1.11) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Antonia et al, 201920 | ||
NSCLC: second line or later | |||||||
OAK | Atezolizumab vs docetaxel | 0.98 (0.87-1.11) | Time varying | <.001 | <.001 | SDE | Fehrenbacher et al, 201838 |
Abbreviations: CA184-002, MDX-010 Antibody, MDX-1379 Melanoma Vaccine, or MDX-010/MDX-1379 Combination Treatment for Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma; CA184-104, Phase 3 Trial in Squamous Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Vs Placebo in Addition to Paclitaxel and Carboplatin; CheckMate-017, Study of BMS-936558 [Nivolumab] Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell NSCLC; CheckMate-037, A Study to Compare BMS-936558 to the Physician's Choice of Either Dacarbazine or Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Advanced Melanoma Patients That Have Progressed Following Anti-CTLA-4 Therapy; CheckMate-057, Study of BMS-936558 [Nivolumab] Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Metastatic Non-squamous NSCLC; CheckMate-066, Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Compared With Dacarbazine in Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma; CheckMate-067, Phase 3 Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab Versus Ipilimumab Alone in Previously Untreated Advanced Melanoma; E1690, Phase 3 Trial in Subjects With Metastatic Melanoma Comparing 3 mg/kg Ipilimumab Versus 10 mg/kg Ipilimumab; FPCM, flexible parametric cure model; GP100, glycoprotein 100; ICC, investigator choice chemotherapy; Keynote-006, Study of Pembrolizumab [MK-3475] in Participants With Progressive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Carcinoma, Melanoma, or Non–Small Cell Lung Carcinoma; LRF, long-term responder fraction; NA, not applicable; NS, nonsignificant; NSCLC, non–small cell lung cancer; OAK, Study of Atezolizumab Compared With Docetaxel in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Failed Platinum-Containing Therapy; PDL1, programmed cell death ligand 1; PFS, progression-free survival; SDE, significantly deleterious effect of the experimental treatment during early time points followed by a significant beneficial effect (direction of the effect varies over time); SFT, significantly in favor of the experimental treatment.
For models with time-dependent effects, a single hazard ratio may not provide a relevant measure of the treatment effect.
Treatment effect on the LRF was only tested for models with time-varying effects.