Fig. 4. Correlation of the antigenic and epidemic time series for DENV1–4 in Bangkok, Thailand from 1994 to 2014.

Epidemic (black lines) versus antigenic time series (colored lines) for all serotypes (large plots) or each serotype separately (vertical plots) measured as (A) distance from the map center, (B) pairwise distance between serotypes each year, (C) pairwise distance from 1994 and 1995 strains of the same serotype. All antigenic and epidemic time series are scaled by the standard deviation and centered at zero for visualization. Pearson’s correlation coefficients and corresponding p-values for epidemic versus bootstrapped (n=1000) antigenic time series are shown (top left), with significance indicated by stars. (D) Summary of Pearson correlation coefficients of the epidemic and antigenic time series for overall antigenic dynamics (no adjustment) and detrended dynamics (linear model subtracted from the GAM). Shown for each serotype (columns) and metric of antigenic distance (rows). Diagonal black boxes correspond to distance from the map center, off diagonal indicates pairwise distance between serotypes. Color indicates correlation (range −1 to 1), while significance is indicated by stars.