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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Feb 1.
Published in final edited form as: Med Decis Making. 2021 Jun 24;42(2):217–227. doi: 10.1177/0272989X211023203

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Model validation: demonstrating the model’s ability to describe several key measures informed by the 2013–2015 National Survey on Family Growth (NSFG) (panels A-C), contraceptive effectiveness statistics [38, 39] (panel D), and the distribution of pregnancy outcomes (panel E) [40]. The age-dependent annual birth rates produced by the model are cross-validated by estimates from the 2015 and 2018 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) (panel A) and the distribution of pregnancy outcomes produced by our model is cross-validated by estimates from the 2010 National Vital Statistics System (panel E). See also Fig. S7 in the Supplementary Material for additional figures to validate the proposed model. Bars for survey estimates represent 95% confidence intervals and for model projections represent 95% uncertainty intervals.