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. 2021 Dec 22;8(1):e001016. doi: 10.1136/bmjresp-2021-001016

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrating the performance of two models to predict COVID-19-related deaths among individuals with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (n=3867) from southeast Michigan and the Detroit metropolitan area. The black line denotes the 14-variable prediction model with black circles representing risk score thresholds. The grey line denotes the age-only prediction model with grey circles representing age thresholds. Red circles represent the Youden index (ie, the point that maximises Sensitivity +Specificity – 1). The area under the curve (AUC) for the 14-variable ROC curve was 0.868 (0.846–0.891), and the AUC for the age-only ROC curve was 0.846 (0.821–0.871).