Table 8.
Expected number of infected vaccinated travellers per large outbreak (model output 3). Columns headings 0%, 70%, 80%, and 90% refer to the percentage of 12-to-64-year-olds that are vaccinated in the community; all scenarios (except 0% coverage) assume 90% of over 65-year-olds are fully vaccinated. Results are from 100,000 independent simulations representing 100,000 infected travellers. For scenarios in which less than 100 of the 100,000 simulations resulted in a large outbreak, the number of infected travellers per large outbreak is shown as >1000.
| Post-arrival | Pre-depart | 0% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Symp check only | 6 | 12 | 15 | 22 |
| Regular symptom checks | No test | 7 | 15 | 20 | 33 |
| PCR on day −3 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 32 | |
| LFT on day −1 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 35 | |
| PCR on days 0 & 4 | No test | 8 | 21 | 30 | 52 |
| PCR on day −3 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 52 | |
| LFT on day −1 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 56 | |
| Daily LFT for 5 days | No test | 11 | 30 | 43 | 79 |
| PCR on day −3 | 12 | 30 | 44 | 82 | |
| LFT on day −1 | 12 | 30 | 46 | 83 | |
| 5 day isolation + PCR on days 0 & 4 | No test | 13 | 40 | 58 | 111 |
| PCR on day −3 | 14 | 39 | 61 | 109 | |
| LFT on day −1 | 14 | 42 | 65 | 111 | |
| 5 day isolation + daily LFT | No test | 19 | 59 | 89 | 157 |
| PCR on day −3 | 19 | 58 | 90 | 154 | |
| LFT on day −1 | 21 | 59 | 98 | 164 | |
| 7 day MIQ + PCR on days 0 & 4 | No test | 649 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 |
| PCR on day −3 | 617 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 | |
| LFT on day −1 | 641 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 | |
| 14 day MIQ + PCR on days 3 & 12 | No test | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 |
| PCR on day −3 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 | |
| LFT on day −1 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 | >1000 |