Table 4.

Probabilities of Misclassification in MSM.

Observed status	Actual status estimated	Unadjusted annual transitional probability (%) 1	Adjusted annual transitional probability (%) 2
MCI	Cognitively normal	8.2 [7.7, 8.6]	7.2 [6.8, 7.7]
Probable dementia	Cognitively normal	4.5 [4.2, 4.8]	4.2 [3.9, 4.5]
Cognitively normal	MCI	10.4 [7.0, 15.3]	16.2 [10.7, 23.8]
Probable dementia	MCI	15.4 [10.2, 22.6]	12.0 [8.3, 17.3]
Cognitively normal	Probable dementia	0.5 [0.2, 1.2]	0.6 [0.3, 1.3]
MCI	Probable dementia	1.0 [0.3, 3.3]	2.0 [1.0, 3.9]

Notes:

¹Unadjusted MSM.

²Adjusted MSM accounting for 5-year baseline age, gender, education, and race/ethnicity.