Table 3.
Accuracy statistics for individuals selected for screening in the ILST by USPSTF2013 criteria and PLCOm2012 risk threshold of at least 1·70% at 6 years
| USPSTF eligible | PLCOm2012 ≥1·70% at 6 years | p value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST data | |||
| Cancer detection rate* | 135/177 (76·3% [69·3–82·3]) | 162/177 (91·5% [86·4–95·2]) | pMcNemar=0·0001 |
| Cancer detection rate† | 135/171 (78·9% [72·1–84·8]) | 162/171 (94·7% [90·2–97·6]) | pMcNemar=0·0001 |
| Positive predictive value† | 135/4540 (2·97% [2·90–3·51]) | 162/4540 (3.57% [3·05–4·15]) | p=0·11 |
| False-negative proportion† | 42/1279 (3·28% [2·38–4·41]) | 15/1279 (1·17% [0·66–1·93]) | p=0·0003 |
| Negative predictive value | 96·72% | 98·83% | .. |
| Supplemented ILST data‡ | |||
| Cancer detection rate† | 135/190 (71·1% [64·0–77·4]) | 162/190 (85·3% [79·4–90·0]) | pMcNemar=0·0001 |
| Specificity† | 8330/12735 (65·4% [64·5–66·2]) | 8357/12735 (65·6% [64·7–66·4]) | p=0·72 |
| False-negative proportion‡ | 55/8385 (0·66% [0·49–0·85]) | 28/8385 (0·33% [0·22–0·48]) | p=0·0030 |
| Negative predictive value | 99·34% | 99·67% | .. |
Data are n/N (% [95% CI]), unless otherwise specified. ILST=International Lung Screening Trial. PLCO=Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. USPSTF=US Preventive Services Task Force.
*
Eligible PLCOm2012 risk threshold of at least 1·51% at 6 years.
†
Eligible by USPSTF or PLCOm2012 threshold of at least 1·70% at 6 years.
‡
Statistics partly use data supplemented by PLCO trial estimates with PLCO data for USPSTF-negative and PLCOm2012 risk threshold less than 1·51% at 6 years.