Table A2.
Observed and excess death in 2020 in 83 regions of Russia
| # | Region | Observed deaths per 100,000 | Excess death rates per 100,000 (95% confidence interval) |
Excess death rates to expected death rates in % (95% confidence interval) |
Excess deaths in thousands (95% confidence interval) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Method B* | Method A | Method B | Method A | Method B | Method A | |||
| 1 | Lipetsk | 1767 | 371 (349, 392) | 289 (278, 298) | 26.6 (24.6, 28.5) | 19.5 (18.7, 20.3) | 4.2 (4, 4.5) | 3.3 (3.2, 3.4) |
| 2 | Samara | 1662 | 362 (347, 377) | 291 (286, 297) | 27.8 (26.4, 29.3) | 21.3 (20.8, 21.7) | 11.5 (11, 11.9) | 9.2 (9.1, 9.4) |
| 3 | Penza | 1742 | 355 (334, 376) | 302 (293, 310) | 25.6 (23.7, 27.6) | 21 (20.2, 21.7) | 4.6 (4.3, 4.9) | 3.9 (3.8, 4) |
| 4 | Mordovia | 1638 | 345 (317, 373) | 272 (261, 284) | 26.7 (24, 29.5) | 19.9 (18.9, 21) | 2.7 (2.5, 2.9) | 2.1 (2.1, 2.2) |
| 5 | Orenburg | 1619 | 341 (324, 357) | 276 (269, 283) | 26.7 (25, 28.3) | 20.5 (19.9, 21.2) | 6.7 (6.3, 7) | 5.4 (5.2, 5.5) |
| 6 | Ulyanovsk | 1683 | 329 (309, 351) | 249 (240, 259) | 24.3 (22.4, 26.3) | 17.4 (16.6, 18.2) | 4 (3.8, 4.3) | 3.1 (2.9, 3.2) |
| 7 | Tatarstan | 1398 | 318 (307, 329) | 250 (245, 255) | 29.4 (28.2, 30.7) | 21.8 (21.3, 22.3) | 12.4 (12, 12.8) | 9.8 (9.6, 9.9) |
| 8 | Chuvashia | 1538 | 316 (296, 336) | 258 (249, 267) | 25.9 (23.9, 27.9) | 20.2 (19.3, 21) | 3.8 (3.6, 4.1) | 3.1 (3, 3.2) |
| 9 | Tula | 1864 | 309 (287, 330) | 211 (202, 221) | 19.9 (18.2, 21.5) | 12.8 (12.2, 13.4) | 4.5 (4.2, 4.8) | 3.1 (2.9, 3.2) |
| 10 | Omsk | 1550 | 306 (289, 322) | 251 (244, 258) | 24.6 (23, 26.2) | 19.3 (18.6, 19.9) | 5.9 (5.6, 6.2) | 4.8 (4.7, 5) |
| 11 | Chelyabinsk | 1581 | 305 (292, 316) | 245 (239, 250) | 23.9 (22.6, 25) | 18.3 (17.8, 18.8) | 10.5 (10.1, 10.9) | 8.5 (8.3, 8.6) |
| 12 | Bashkortostan | 1483 | 301 (290, 313) | 221 (216, 226) | 25.5 (24.3, 26.8) | 17.5 (17.1, 17.9) | 12.1 (11.7, 12.6) | 8.9 (8.7, 9.1) |
| 13 | Ryazan | 1793 | 297 (274, 321) | 241 (231, 251) | 19.9 (18, 21.8) | 15.5 (14.8, 16.3) | 3.3 (3, 3.5) | 2.7 (2.6, 2.8) |
| 14 | Tambov | 1772 | 292 (268, 315) | 219 (209, 230) | 19.7 (17.8, 21.6) | 14.1 (13.4, 14.9) | 2.9 (2.7, 3.2) | 2.2 (2.1, 2.3) |
| 15 | Moscow Oblast | 1456 | 289 (281, 297) | 208 (204, 211) | 24.8 (23.9, 25.7) | 16.6 (16.3, 17) | 22.2 (21.6, 22.8) | 15.9 (15.7, 16.2) |
| 16 | Oryol | 1803 | 289 (259, 317) | 208 (196, 221) | 19.1 (16.8, 21.3) | 13.1 (12.2, 14) | 2.1 (1.9, 2.3) | 1.5 (1.4, 1.6) |
| 17 | Nizhny Novgorod | 1724 | 286 (271, 300) | 218 (212, 224) | 19.9 (18.7, 21.1) | 14.5 (14, 15) | 9.1 (8.6, 9.6) | 7 (6.8, 7.2) |
| 18 | Saratov | 1638 | 281 (264, 296) | 249 (242, 255) | 20.7 (19.2, 22) | 17.9 (17.3, 18.5) | 6.8 (6.4, 7.1) | 6 (5.8, 6.2) |
| 19 | Volgograd | 1572 | 280 (265, 294) | 231 (225, 238) | 21.7 (20.3, 23) | 17.3 (16.7, 17.8) | 7 (6.6, 7.3) | 5.7 (5.6, 5.9) |
| 20 | Leningrad | 1494 | 279 (262, 296) | 159 (151, 167) | 23 (21.3, 24.7) | 11.9 (11.3, 12.6) | 5.2 (4.9, 5.5) | 3 (2.8, 3.1) |
| 21 | Saint Petersburg | 1350 | 279 (270, 288) | 206 (202, 210) | 26.1 (25, 27.1) | 18 (17.6, 18.5) | 15 (14.5, 15.5) | 11.1 (10.9, 11.3) |
| 22 | Vladimir | 1811 | 278 (255, 300) | 206 (197, 215) | 18.1 (16.4, 19.8) | 12.9 (12.2, 13.5) | 3.7 (3.4, 4.1) | 2.8 (2.7, 2.9) |
| 23 | Mari El | 1431 | 268 (241, 295) | 149 (137, 160) | 23 (20.3, 25.9) | 11.6 (10.6, 12.6) | 1.8 (1.6, 2) | 1 (0.9, 1.1) |
| 24 | Yaroslavl | 1709 | 267 (246, 290) | 187 (177, 196) | 18.6 (16.8, 20.4) | 12.3 (11.6, 13) | 3.3 (3.1, 3.6) | 2.3 (2.2, 2.4) |
| 25 | Kaluga | 1719 | 264 (239, 290) | 232 (221, 242) | 18.2 (16.2, 20.3) | 15.6 (14.7, 16.4) | 2.6 (2.4, 2.9) | 2.3 (2.2, 2.4) |
| 26 | Sverdlovsk | 1563 | 261 (250, 273) | 195 (190, 200) | 20 (19, 21.1) | 14.3 (13.9, 14.7) | 11.2 (10.7, 11.7) | 8.4 (8.2, 8.6) |
| 27 | Udmurtia | 1405 | 258 (241, 275) | 179 (171, 186) | 22.5 (20.7, 24.4) | 14.6 (13.9, 15.3) | 3.9 (3.6, 4.1) | 2.7 (2.6, 2.8) |
| 28 | Kursk | 1728 | 258 (233, 281) | 161 (151, 171) | 17.5 (15.6, 19.4) | 10.3 (9.6, 11) | 2.8 (2.6, 3.1) | 1.8 (1.7, 1.9) |
| 29 | Perm | 1546 | 255 (240, 270) | 187 (180, 193) | 19.7 (18.3, 21.2) | 13.7 (13.2, 14.3) | 6.6 (6.2, 7) | 4.8 (4.7, 5) |
| 30 | Novosibirsk | 1524 | 254 (240, 267) | 230 (224, 236) | 20 (18.7, 21.3) | 17.8 (17.2, 18.4) | 7.1 (6.7, 7.5) | 6.4 (6.3, 6.6) |
| 31 | Voronezh | 1647 | 253 (238, 268) | 168 (161, 174) | 18.2 (16.9, 19.4) | 11.3 (10.8, 11.8) | 5.9 (5.5, 6.2) | 3.9 (3.7, 4) |
| 32 | Jewish AO | 1573 | 253 (197, 315) | 137 (112, 163) | 19.2 (14.3, 25) | 9.6 (7.6, 11.6) | 0.4 (0.3, 0.5) | 0.2 (0.2, 0.3) |
| 33 | Astrakhan | 1351 | 252 (230, 274) | 180 (169, 189) | 22.9 (20.5, 25.4) | 15.3 (14.3, 16.2) | 2.5 (2.3, 2.8) | 1.8 (1.7, 1.9) |
| 34 | Kirov | 1670 | 248 (225, 269) | 194 (185, 203) | 17.4 (15.6, 19.2) | 13.2 (12.5, 13.8) | 3.1 (2.8, 3.4) | 2.4 (2.3, 2.5) |
| 35 | Amur | 1612 | 244 (218, 270) | 245 (234, 256) | 17.8 (15.7, 20.1) | 17.9 (17, 18.9) | 1.9 (1.7, 2.1) | 1.9 (1.8, 2) |
| 36 | Tver | 1842 | 243 (221, 267) | 135 (124, 145) | 15.2 (13.6, 16.9) | 7.9 (7.2, 8.5) | 3 (2.8, 3.3) | 1.7 (1.6, 1.8) |
| 37 | Krasnodar | 1428 | 242 (233, 252) | 173 (169, 177) | 20.4 (19.5, 21.4) | 13.8 (13.5, 14.2) | 13.7 (13.2, 14.3) | 9.8 (9.6, 10) |
| 38 | Bryansk | 1695 | 241 (218, 265) | 163 (153, 174) | 16.6 (14.8, 18.5) | 10.7 (9.9, 11.4) | 2.9 (2.6, 3.1) | 1.9 (1.8, 2.1) |
| 39 | Pskov | 1890 | 241 (208, 274) | 137 (123, 151) | 14.6 (12.4, 16.9) | 7.8 (7, 8.7) | 1.5 (1.3, 1.7) | 0.9 (0.8, 0.9) |
| 40 | Khabarovsk | 1535 | 237 (215, 257) | 222 (214, 231) | 18.2 (16.3, 20.1) | 16.9 (16.2, 17.7) | 3.1 (2.8, 3.4) | 2.9 (2.8, 3) |
| 41 | Kostroma | 1653 | 234 (203, 265) | 132 (119, 146) | 16.5 (14, 19.1) | 8.7 (7.8, 9.7) | 1.5 (1.3, 1.7) | 0.8 (0.8, 0.9) |
| 42 | Karelia | 1642 | 233 (201, 264) | 168 (155, 181) | 16.5 (14, 19.1) | 11.4 (10.4, 12.4) | 1.4 (1.2, 1.6) | 1 (0.9, 1.1) |
| 43 | Kurgan | 1724 | 232 (206, 259) | 167 (155, 179) | 15.5 (13.5, 17.7) | 10.7 (9.8, 11.6) | 1.9 (1.7, 2.1) | 1.4 (1.3, 1.5) |
| 44 | Moscow | 1173 | 231 (225, 237) | 197 (195, 200) | 24.6 (23.8, 25.4) | 20.2 (19.9, 20.5) | 29.3 (28.6, 30.1) | 25 (24.7, 25.3) |
| 45 | Tomsk | 1335 | 228 (207, 247) | 201 (193, 210) | 20.5 (18.3, 22.7) | 17.7 (16.9, 18.7) | 2.5 (2.2, 2.7) | 2.2 (2.1, 2.3) |
| 46 | Smolensk | 1706 | 226 (200, 253) | 133 (121, 144) | 15.3 (13.3, 17.4) | 8.4 (7.6, 9.2) | 2.1 (1.9, 2.4) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.3) |
| 47 | Murmansk | 1342 | 225 (199, 251) | 207 (197, 218) | 20.2 (17.4, 23) | 18.2 (17.2, 19.4) | 1.7 (1.5, 1.9) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.6) |
| 48 | Belgorod | 1543 | 225 (206, 243) | 181 (173, 189) | 17.1 (15.4, 18.7) | 13.3 (12.6, 13.9) | 3.5 (3.2, 3.7) | 2.8 (2.7, 2.9) |
| 49 | Altai Krai | 1630 | 223 (208, 240) | 220 (214, 227) | 15.9 (14.6, 17.2) | 15.6 (15.1, 16.2) | 5.2 (4.8, 5.5) | 5.1 (4.9, 5.2) |
| 50 | Rostov | 1532 | 222 (211, 233) | 175 (170, 180) | 16.9 (15.9, 17.9) | 12.9 (12.5, 13.3) | 9.3 (8.8, 9.8) | 7.3 (7.1, 7.5) |
| 51 | Irkutsk | 1490 | 204 (189, 219) | 166 (160, 173) | 15.8 (14.5, 17.3) | 12.6 (12, 13.1) | 4.9 (4.5, 5.2) | 4 (3.8, 4.1) |
| 52 | Chechnya | 620 | 203 (192, 215) | 160 (155, 165) | 48.9 (45, 53) | 34.8 (33.3, 36.3) | 3 (2.9, 3.2) | 2.4 (2.3, 2.5) |
| 53 | Novgorod | 1815 | 202 (167, 235) | 111 (97, 124) | 12.5 (10.1, 14.8) | 6.5 (5.6, 7.4) | 1.2 (1, 1.4) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.7) |
| 54 | Krasnoyarsk | 1409 | 194 (180, 207) | 167 (161, 174) | 15.9 (14.6, 17.2) | 13.5 (12.9, 14) | 5.5 (5.1, 5.9) | 4.8 (4.6, 5) |
| 55 | Khakassia | 1400 | 194 (161, 225) | 125 (112, 138) | 16 (13, 19.2) | 9.8 (8.7, 10.9) | 1 (0.9, 1.2) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.7) |
| 56 | Kabardino-Balkaria | 1004 | 193 (174, 214) | 156 (147, 165) | 23.8 (20.9, 27) | 18.4 (17.1, 19.6) | 1.7 (1.5, 1.9) | 1.4 (1.3, 1.4) |
| 57 | Kemerovo | 1610 | 192 (175, 207) | 179 (173, 185) | 13.5 (12.2, 14.7) | 12.5 (12, 13) | 5.1 (4.6, 5.5) | 4.7 (4.6, 4.9) |
| 58 | Tyumen | 1217 | 188 (170, 205) | 113 (105, 121) | 18.2 (16.2, 20.2) | 10.2 (9.5, 11) | 2.9 (2.6, 3.2) | 1.7 (1.6, 1.9) |
| 59 | Karachay-Cherkessia | 1063 | 186 (158, 217) | 135 (122, 147) | 21.3 (17.4, 25.6) | 14.6 (13, 16.1) | 0.9 (0.7, 1) | 0.6 (0.6, 0.7) |
| 60 | North Ossetia | 1199 | 185 (160, 209) | 160 (149, 170) | 18.3 (15.5, 21.1) | 15.4 (14.2, 16.6) | 1.3 (1.1, 1.5) | 1.1 (1, 1.2) |
| 61 | Ivanovo | 1763 | 181 (156, 206) | 166 (155, 177) | 11.4 (9.7, 13.3) | 10.4 (9.6, 11.2) | 1.8 (1.5, 2) | 1.6 (1.5, 1.8) |
| 62 | Nenets AO | 1033 | 180 (94, 268) | 145 (106, 187) | 21 (10, 35.1) | 16.3 (11.4, 22.1) | 0.1 (0, 0.1) | 0.1 (0, 0.1) |
| 63 | Dagestan | 641 | 180 (172, 188) | 135 (131, 138) | 38.9 (36.7, 41.4) | 26.7 (25.8, 27.5) | 5.6 (5.4, 5.9) | 4.2 (4.1, 4.3) |
| 64 | Primorsky Krai | 1527 | 179 (162, 197) | 180 (173, 187) | 13.3 (11.9, 14.8) | 13.3 (12.8, 14) | 3.4 (3.1, 3.7) | 3.4 (3.3, 3.5) |
| 65 | Arkhangelsk | 1476 | 179 (157, 202) | 137 (127, 147) | 13.8 (11.9, 15.8) | 10.3 (9.4, 11) | 1.9 (1.7, 2.2) | 1.5 (1.4, 1.6) |
| 66 | Stavropol | 1297 | 177 (164, 189) | 151 (145, 157) | 15.8 (14.4, 17.1) | 13.2 (12.6, 13.7) | 4.9 (4.6, 5.3) | 4.2 (4.1, 4.4) |
| 67 | Kamchatka | 1263 | 176 (136, 214) | 137 (121, 154) | 16.2 (12.1, 20.4) | 12.2 (10.6, 13.9) | 0.6 (0.4, 0.7) | 0.4 (0.4, 0.5) |
| 68 | Komi | 1339 | 169 (144, 193) | 132 (121, 142) | 14.5 (12.1, 16.8) | 10.9 (10, 11.8) | 1.4 (1.2, 1.6) | 1.1 (1, 1.2) |
| 69 | Sakhalin | 1376 | 163 (129, 196) | 104 (89, 118) | 13.5 (10.4, 16.6) | 8.2 (6.9, 9.4) | 0.8 (0.6, 1) | 0.5 (0.4, 0.6) |
| 70 | Kalmykia | 1106 | 161 (124, 198) | 134 (116, 150) | 17.1 (12.6, 21.8) | 13.7 (11.8, 15.7) | 0.4 (0.3, 0.5) | 0.4 (0.3, 0.4) |
| 71 | Sakha (Yakutia) | 918 | 161 (143, 179) | 104 (96, 112) | 21.3 (18.4, 24.2) | 12.8 (11.7, 13.9) | 1.6 (1.4, 1.7) | 1 (0.9, 1.1) |
| 72 | Khanty-Mansiysky AO | 760 | 157 (145, 170) | 138 (133, 143) | 26.2 (23.6, 28.8) | 22.1 (21.2, 23.2) | 2.6 (2.4, 2.9) | 2.3 (2.2, 2.4) |
| 73 | Altai Republic | 1129 | 157 (112, 201) | 114 (93, 133) | 16.1 (11, 21.7) | 11.2 (9, 13.4) | 0.3 (0.2, 0.4) | 0.3 (0.2, 0.3) |
| 74 | Yamalo-Nenets AO | 602 | 155 (136, 174) | 106 (97, 114) | 34.8 (29.2, 40.5) | 21.3 (19.2, 23.5) | 0.8 (0.7, 0.9) | 0.6 (0.5, 0.6) |
| 75 | Kaliningrad | 1310 | 154 (133, 178) | 64 (54, 74) | 13.4 (11.3, 15.7) | 5.1 (4.3, 6) | 1.6 (1.3, 1.8) | 0.6 (0.5, 0.7) |
| 76 | Vologda | 1543 | 154 (131, 177) | 89 (79, 98) | 11.1 (9.3, 13) | 6.1 (5.4, 6.8) | 1.8 (1.5, 2) | 1 (0.9, 1.1) |
| 77 | Zabaykalsky Krai | 1349 | 150 (128, 171) | 117 (108, 127) | 12.5 (10.5, 14.5) | 9.5 (8.7, 10.4) | 1.6 (1.4, 1.8) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.3) |
| 78 | Tuva | 914 | 146 (111, 180) | -6 (-21, 9) | 19 (13.8, 24.5) | -0.7 (-2.2, 1) | 0.5 (0.4, 0.6) | 0 (-0.1, 0) |
| 79 | Magadan | 1258 | 124 (66, 180) | 106 (82, 129) | 10.9 (5.5, 16.7) | 9.2 (6.9, 11.5) | 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) | 0.1 (0.1, 0.2) |
| 80 | Buryatia | 1174 | 109 (88, 131) | 73 (64, 82) | 10.3 (8.1, 12.6) | 6.7 (5.8, 7.5) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.3) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.8) |
| 81 | Adygea | 1313 | 106 (71, 141) | 49 (35, 64) | 8.8 (5.7, 12) | 3.9 (2.7, 5.1) | 0.5 (0.3, 0.7) | 0.2 (0.2, 0.3) |
| 82 | Ingushetia | 387 | 87 (71, 104) | 67 (60, 74) | 29.1 (22.4, 36.6) | 20.9 (18.3, 23.8) | 0.4 (0.4, 0.5) | 0.3 (0.3, 0.4) |
| 83 | Chukotka | 1033 | 45 (-48, 137) | 52 (14, 91) | 4.5 (-4.4, 15.3) | 5.3 (1.3, 9.6) | 0 (0, 0.1) | 0 (0, 0) |
Notes: Method A – averages in the same months in preceding years; Method B – averages adjusted for secular trends.
* Regions are listed in descending order by excess death rates (method B).