Table 2.

Summary of findings including ARIMA models and cross-correlation results between IL-6 concentrations and SLE-specific and SLE-nonspecific symptoms.

	Urinary IL-6 SAR(2), deterministic season, s=8, sqt
Urinary protein (0,0,0), cube root	–lag1: r=–.322; p<.001		+lag3: r=+.225; p=.017
Oral ulceration not modeled		± lag0: r=.186; p=.049	+lag4: r=–.170; n.s.
Facial rash not modeled	–lag7: r=–.215; p=.023
Joint pain AR(1), deterministic trend Fatigue deterministic trend Tiredness SMA(4), ln Body temperature deterministic season, s=2, ln		± lag0: r=–.193; p=.042	+lag7: r=.189; p=.046

+Lag means that IL-6 levels precede SLE symptom, –lag means that SLE symptom precedes IL-6 levels. Lag0 in this study can mean concurrency, positive lag (within 12 h) or negative lag (within 12 h).

IL-6, interleukin-6; AR, Autoregressive; SMA, Seasonal Moving Average; SAR, Seasonal Autoregressive; s, seasonality; n.s., not significant; sqt, square root; ln, natural logarithm.