Extended Data Table 9:

Prior distributions for model parameters.

Parameter	Prior distribution
${\rho }_1^j$	normal (0,1)
${\delta }_t^{i\left[j\right]}$	normal (0, σ1)
${\varphi }_1^{i\left[j\right]}$	normal (aj, bj)
a j	half-normal (−3,1)
b j	half-normal (1.5,1)
σ1	half-normal (0,5)
σ2	half-normal (0,5)
β	half-normal (0,5)