Table 1:
Key population immunity outcomes for each US state on December 1, 2021.
| State | Percentage ever vaccinated* | Percentage ever infected (95%CrI) | Ratio percentage vaccinated / percentage infected | Percentage immunologic ally exposed (95%CrI) | Percentage effectively protected against infection, pre-Omicron variants (95%CrI) ** | Percentage effectively protected against severe disease, pre-Omicron variants (95%CrI) ** | Percentage effectively protected against infection with Omicron (95%CrI)*** | Percentage effectively protected against severe disease from Omicron (95%CrI)*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 52.4% | 71.3% (60%−84.2%) | 0.73 | 88.6% (83%−94.3%) | 52.8% (50%−55.9%) | 74.1% (70.3%−78.2%) | 20.7% (19.9%−21.7%) | 61% (57.9%−64.3%) |
| Alaska | 58.3% | 66.8% (54.8%−81.2%) | 0.87 | 88.7% (83.3%−94.2%) | 57.7% (54.2%−61.4%) | 73.9% (70.4%−77.9%) | 24.2% (23.2%−25.4%) | 61.6% (58.8%−64.8%) |
| Arizona | 62.5% | 77.6% (67.6%−88.1%) | 0.81 | 93.4% (89.7%−96.8%) | 58.8% (56.1%−61.5%) | 77.3% (75%−79.5%) | 22.9% (22.1%−23.8%) | 63.7% (61.9%−65.5%) |
| Arkansas | 52.8% | 64.3% (52%−79.4%) | 0.82 | 85.8% (79.5%−92.6%) | 50.5% (47.4%−54.5%) | 71.5% (67.3%−76.3%) | 20.6% (19.8%−21.9%) | 59.1% (55.8%−63%) |
| California | 71.4% | 57.2% (44.5%−74.1%) | 1.25 | 89.4% (85.6%−93.9%) | 55.3% (51.3%−60.8%) | 75.3% (73.4%−77.9%) | 22.1% (20.9%−23.8%) | 62.2% (60.7%−64.3%) |
| Colorado | 79.1% | 63.7% (51.4%−79%) | 1.24 | 93.3% (90.6%−96.3%) | 63.2% (59.6%−67.8%) | 78.9% (77.9%−80.1%) | 26.4% (25.3%−27.8%) | 65.8% (64.9%−66.7%) |
| Connecticut | 82.3% | 48.4% (36.1%−66.7%) | 1.7 | 91.6% (89.2%−94.8%) | 58.8% (54.9%−64.8%) | 79.5% (78.7%−80.7%) | 24.1% (23%−25.9%) | 65.9% (65.3%−66.8%) |
| Delaware | 69.4% | 60.3% (47.8%−76.5%) | 1.15 | 89.8% (85.6%−94.5%) | 56.8% (53.2%−61.7%) | 75.8% (73.5%−78.6%) | 23.2% (22.2%−24.7%) | 62.8% (61%−65.1%) |
| District of Columbia | 78.3% | 48.8% (36.5%−67.1%) | 1.6 | 90.0% (86.9%−94%) | 55.7% (51.8%−61.8%) | 77.3% (76.2%−79.1%) | 21.2% (20%−23%) | 63.4% (62.5%−64.8%) |
| Florida | 70.7% | 69% (57.3%−82.6%) | 1.03 | 93.2% (90%−96.4%) | 60.5% (56.7%−64.8%) | 78.5% (76.5%−80.7%) | 23.5% (22.3%−24.8%) | 64.7% (63%−66.5%) |
| Georgia | 50.8% | 71.2% (59.9%−84.1%) | 0.71 | 88.4% (82.8%−94.1%) | 51.8% (48.7%−55.1%) | 73.4% (69.5%−77.6%) | 20.2% (19.2%−21.2%) | 60.3% (57.2%−63.7%) |
| Hawaii | 82.1% | 24% (16%−40.3%) | 3.43 | 86.8% (85.2%−90%) | 46.4% (43.5%−52.6%) | 77.3% (76.9%−78.3%) | 17.8% (16.9%−19.6%) | 63.2% (62.9%−64%) |
| Idaho | 49.4% | 68.6% (56.9%−82.4%) | 0.72 | 86.8% (80.4%−93.4%) | 54.7% (51.7%−57.5%) | 72.5% (68.1%−77.3%) | 23.4% (22.6%−24.3%) | 60.4% (57%−64.3%) |
| Illinois | 68.3% | 52.4% (39.9%−70.2%) | 1.3 | 87.2% (82.9%−92.6%) | 52.6% (48.9%−58.1%) | 73.3% (71%−76.6%) | 22.2% (21.1%−23.9%) | 60.9% (59.1%−63.5%) |
| Indiana | 54.9% | 55.2% (42.6%−72.5%) | 1 | 82.9% (76.6%−90.4%) | 47.9% (44.4%−53%) | 68.8% (64.9%−74.2%) | 19.8% (18.8%−21.4%) | 57% (53.8%−61.3%) |
| Iowa | 60.8% | 56.4% (43.8%−73.5%) | 1.08 | 85.3% (79.7%−91.9%) | 53% (50%−57.3%) | 71.4% (68.2%−75.7%) | 23.9% (23.1%−25.2%) | 60% (57.4%−63.4%) |
| Kansas | 61.4% | 59.3% (46.7%−75.7%) | 1.04 | 86.8% (81.4%−92.8%) | 52.6% (49.2%−57.2%) | 72.3% (69.1%−76.2%) | 21.7% (20.7%−23.1%) | 59.9% (57.4%−63.1%) |
| Kentucky | 56.3% | 66.8% (54.8%−81.2%) | 0.84 | 87.8% (82.1%−93.7%) | 55.1% (51.9%−58.6%) | 73.9% (70.1%−78.1%) | 23% (22.1%−24.1%) | 61.4% (58.4%−64.8%) |
| Louisiana | 53.8% | 67.2% (55.2%−81.4%) | 0.8 | 87.2% (81.4%−93.4%) | 51.1% (47.9%−54.9%) | 72% (68.3%−76.3%) | 20.5% (19.6%−21.7%) | 59.5% (56.5%−62.8%) |
| Maine | 78.3% | 36.6% (25.8%−55.3%) | 2.14 | 87.7% (84.7%−92.1%) | 55.5% (52.3%−61.2%) | 77.2% (75.9%−79.4%) | 24.2% (23.3%−25.9%) | 64.4% (63.4%−66.2%) |
| Maryland | 75.8% | 46.5% (34.3%−65%) | 1.63 | 88.6% (85.2%−93%) | 55.1% (51.6%−60.9%) | 75.8% (74.4%−77.9%) | 23.1% (22%−24.8%) | 62.9% (61.8%−64.6%) |
| Massachus etts | 77.7% | 51.7% (39.2%−69.7%) | 1.5 | 90.6% (87.5%−94.5%) | 57.4% (53.5%−63.3%) | 77.9% (76.5%−79.9%) | 23.4% (22.3%−25.2%) | 64.5% (63.4%−66.1%) |
| Michigan | 56.5% | 63.4% (51.1%−78.8%) | 0.89 | 87.5% (81.8%−93.4%) | 53.3% (50.2%−57.1%) | 72.6% (68.9%−77.1%) | 23.2% (22.4%−24.5%) | 60.7% (57.7%−64.2%) |
| Minnesota | 64.8% | 51.7% (39.2%−69.6%) | 1.25 | 85.4% (80.5%−91.6%) | 54.2% (51%−58.8%) | 71.9% (69.2%−75.7%) | 24.5% (23.7%−25.9%) | 60.4% (58.3%−63.5%) |
| Mississippi | 52.8% | 68.3% (56.5%−82.2%) | 0.77 | 87.7% (81.8%−93.7%) | 50.8% (47.7%−54.5%) | 72.4% (68.6%−76.7%) | 20% (19.1%−21.2%) | 59.6% (56.6%−63.1%) |
| Missouri | 54.2% | 51.4% (38.9%−69.3%) | 1.06 | 80.8% (74.3%−89.1%) | 46.8% (43.4%−52%) | 67.8% (63.6%−73.6%) | 19.7% (18.8%−21.3%) | 56.2% (52.9%−60.9%) |
| Montana | 56.6% | 62.9% (50.5%−78.4%) | 0.9 | 86.6% (80.6%−93%) | 55.1% (52%−58.7%) | 72.9% (69.1%−77.6%) | 24.1% (23.2%−25.2%) | 61% (57.9%−64.7%) |
| Nebraska | 55% | 59.8% (42.8%−79.1%) | 0.92 | 84.6% (76.2%−92.8%) | 51.8% (46.9%−57.8%) | 70.3% (64.9%−76.2%) | 22.4% (21.1%−24.3%) | 58.7% (54.4%−63.4%) |
| Nevada | 62.3% | 67.7% (49.2%−86.5%) | 0.92 | 90.1% (82.9%−96.3%) | 55.4% (49.2%−62.1%) | 75% (70.4%−79.6%) | 21.5% (19.7%−23.6%) | 61.7% (58%−65.5%) |
| New Hampshire | 82.8% | 39.9% (28.7%−58.7%) | 2.08 | 90.5% (88.3%−93.8%) | 54.9% (50.9%−61.8%) | 80.2% (79.5%−81.4%) | 18.1% (16.9%−20.1%) | 64.7% (64.1%−65.7%) |
| New Jersey | 75.3% | 58.3% (45.7%−74.9%) | 1.29 | 91.1% (87.8%−95%) | 57.6% (53.6%−63%) | 76.8% (75.3%−78.7%) | 22.8% (21.6%−24.5%) | 63.4% (62.2%−64.9%) |
| New Mexico | 67.2% | 78.5% (68.7%−88.6%) | 0.86 | 94.4% (91.2%−97.3%) | 62.4% (60%−64.7%) | 78.4% (76.6%−80.1%) | 25.9% (25.2%−26.7%) | 65.2% (63.8%−66.6%) |
| New York | 75.8% | 60.6% (48%−76.7%) | 1.25 | 91.8% (88.7%−95.4%) | 57.8% (53.5%−63.5%) | 77.4% (76%−79.2%) | 21.4% (20.1%−23.2%) | 63.4% (62.2%−64.8%) |
| North Carolina | 58.1% | 51.7% (37.6%−71.7%) | 1.12 | 83.2% (76.5%−91.2%) | 46.2% (41.1%−53.9%) | 69.4% (65.1%−75.4%) | 17.3% (15.8%−19.6%) | 56.7% (53.3%−61.5%) |
| North Dakota | 53.1% | 70% (58.4%−83.3%) | 0.76 | 88.4% (82.6%−94.2%) | 53.2% (50.6%−56%) | 72.6% (68.9%−76.6%) | 22.8% (22.1%−23.8%) | 60.5% (57.6%−63.7%) |
| Ohio | 56% | 50.3% (38%−70.7%) | 1.11 | 81.3% (75.2%−90%) | 48.3% (44.9%−54.7%) | 68.2% (64.3%−74.5%) | 21.3% (20.3%−23.2%) | 56.9% (53.8%−62%) |
| Oklahoma | 58.7% | 74.6% (63.8%−86.3%) | 0.79 | 91.4% (86.9%−95.8%) | 57.8% (55%−60.5%) | 76% (73.1%−79%) | 22.6% (21.8%−23.5%) | 62.7% (60.3%−65.1%) |
| Oregon | 69.6% | 42.4% (29.7%−62.9%) | 1.64 | 85.0% (80.4%−91.3%) | 52.8% (48.7%−59.9%) | 73.1% (70.6%−77.1%) | 22.4% (21.3%−24.5%) | 60.8% (58.8%−64%) |
| Pennsylvania | 76.1% | 54.2% (41.6%−71.7%) | 1.4 | 90.6% (87.4%−94.5%) | 56.3% (51.9%−62.5%) | 77.3% (75.7%−79.4%) | 20.7% (19.4%−22.6%) | 63.2% (62%−64.9%) |
| Rhode Island | 75.4% | 64.1% (51.8%−79.2%) | 1.18 | 92.6% (89.3%−96.1%) | 61.2% (57.8%−65.7%) | 78.7% (77.1%−80.6%) | 25.2% (24.2%−26.6%) | 65.3% (64.1%−66.9%) |
| South Carolina | 56.4% | 62.3% (49.9%−78%) | 0.91 | 86.3% (80.3%−92.8%) | 51.9% (48.5%−56.2%) | 72.2% (68.4%−76.8%) | 21% (20%−22.3%) | 59.7% (56.7%−63.4%) |
| South Dakota | 63.5% | 63.6% (51.3%−78.9%) | 1 | 88.8% (83.9%−94.1%) | 55.4% (52.6%−59.1%) | 73.3% (70.7%−76.5%) | 22.9% (22.1%−24.1%) | 60.9% (58.8%−63.4%) |
| Tennessee | 53.8% | 65.2% (51.3%−85.3%) | 0.82 | 86.6% (79.9%−94.9%) | 51.7% (47.6%−58.2%) | 72.3% (67.6%−78.9%) | 21.6% (20.4%−23.7%) | 60% (56.3%−65.4%) |
| Texas | 62.6% | 66.9% (54.9%−81.2%) | 0.94 | 89.4% (84.9%−94.3%) | 54.4% (50.9%−58.6%) | 73.6% (71%−76.7%) | 21.1% (20.1%−22.4%) | 60.6% (58.5%−63%) |
| Utah | 50.5% | 61.5% (49.1%−77.4%) | 0.82 | 83.7% (77.1%−91.2%) | 49% (45.3%−53.3%) | 68.8% (64.5%−74%) | 19.7% (18.6%−21%) | 56.8% (53.4%−61%) |
| Vermont | 61.4% | 35.3% (25.8%−52.7%) | 1.74 | 78% (73.2%−85.6%) | 50.4% (47.6%−55.8%) | 67.8% (64.9%−72.9%) | 24.2% (23.5%−25.7%) | 57.4% (55.2%−61.4%) |
| Virginia | 64.9% | 44.7% (32.7%−63.4%) | 1.45 | 83% (78.1%−89.7%) | 50.1% (46.6%−55.7%) | 70.7% (67.9%−74.9%) | 21.2% (20.3%−22.9%) | 58.7% (56.6%−62.1%) |
| Washingto n | 69.2% | 41.7% (30.1%−60.5%) | 1.66 | 84.5% (80.2%−90.5%) | 50.9% (47.3%−57%) | 72.3% (70.1%−75.7%) | 21.6% (20.6%−23.3%) | 60% (58.3%−62.8%) |
| West Virginia | 32% | 61.3% (48.8%−77.2%) | 0.52 | 76.9% (67.6%−87.6%) | 41.6% (37.6%−46.2%) | 65.4% (58.3%−74.2%) | 14.4% (13.2%−15.8%) | 53% (47.3%−60%) |
| Wisconsin | 63.4% | 51.4% (39.6%−71%) | 1.23 | 84.7% (79.7%−91.7%) | 52.9% (49.7%−58.6%) | 71.7% (68.8%−76.4%) | 23.5% (22.7%−25.3%) | 60.1% (57.8%−63.8%) |
| Wyoming | 51.7% | 72.3% (55.3%−91.4%) | 0.71 | 89.1% (80.5%−97.1%) | 56.2% (50.7%−62.6%) | 74.7% (68.5%−81.3%) | 23.7% (22.1%−25.8%) | 62.1% (57.2%−67.5%) |
*
Received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose
**
Assuming the base-case waning functions.
***
Assuming the base-case waning functions and the medium immune evasion scenario.