Table 3.

Results on test data (2018, N = 10,201)

	N	Mean hours	Baseline model (R2 = 0.00)				Model1 (R2 = 0.18)
			ME	CI	MAE	CI	ME	CI	MAE	CI
1	3860	60.27	− 1.62	− 3.66–0.44	45.86	44.42–47.36	0.51	− 1.38–2.42	40.09	38.8–41.47
2	1355	63.38	− 1.64	− 5.3–1.89	49.7	47.29–52.25	3.25	0.02–6.55	43.19	40.89–45.5
3	300	68.54	7.58	− 1.99–16.87	57.18	50.74–63.59	9.95	1.83–18.12	51.32	45.36–57.13
4	1472	62.77	− 2.02	− 5.27–1.37	47.08	44.63–49.45	3.89	0.91–6.94	41.14	38.9–43.22
5	1431	59.25	1.70	− 1.55–4.84	44.5	42.26–46.93	6.84	3.85–9.74	40.51	38.28–42.71
6	1783	63.68	0.99	− 2.08–4.13	49.06	46.92–51.21	4.12	1.23–7.07	43.56	41.6–45.62
Total	10,201	61.74	− 0.49	− 1.81–0.78	47.25	46.35–48.14	3.16	1.98–4.32	41.64	40.81–42.45

	N	Mean hours	Model2 (R2 = 0.28)				Model3 (R2 = 0.54)
			ME	CI	MAE	CI	ME	CI	MAE	CI
1	3860	60.27	− 0.01	− 1.72–1.78	35.86	34.58–37.21	− 0.18	− 1.55–1.14	27.36	26.31–28.44
2	1355	63.38	2.17	− 0.84–5.27	39.08	36.85–41.28	0.86	− 1.56–3.35	29.84	28.07–31.69
3	300	68.54	6.19	− 1.05–13.18	42.44	37.3–47.6	− 0.48	− 6.46–5.62	32.37	27.58–37.18
4	1472	62.77	2.03	− 0.88–4.75	36.86	34.76–39.05	0.36	− 1.96–2.62	28.54	26.7–30.35
5	1431	59.25	4.66	1.90–7.34	35.23	33.15–37.2	1.26	− 0.92–3.37	26.55	24.88–28.28
6	1783	63.68	3.31	0.60 – 6.00	39.77	37.82–41.77	0.52	− 1.62–2.6	30.12	28.53–31.77
Total	10,201	61.74	1.99	0.87–3.02	37.21	36.42–38	0.35	− 0.52–1.26	28.37	27.72–29.05

Aggregated predictions on test data for each insurance company population

ME mean error, MAE mean absolute error, with 95% bootstrapped confidence intervals