Table 4.
Conditional probabilities from the Bayesian network fit
| Outcome | Conditioned on | Probability | Strength (BIC) | Strength (Bootstrap) | Direction (Bootstrap) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age ≥ 18 | – | 0.62 | – | – | – |
| Stayed in rural area | – | 0.72 | – | – | – |
| Pretravel healthcare | – | 0.80 | – | – | – |
| Prior travel | Age < 18 | 0.01 | −15.41 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Age ≥ 18 | 0.29 | – | – | – | |
| Jetlag | No prior travel | 0.40 | −14.53 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Prior travel | 0.88 | – | – | – | |
| Travel injury | No prior travel | 0.11 | −10.06 | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| Prior travel | 0.48 | – | – | – | |
| Bednetting | Stayed in urban area | 0.03 | −7.65 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Stayed in rural area | 0.27 | – | – | – | |
| Long sleeves to prevent malaria | Age < 18 | 0.63 | −7.40 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Age ≥ 18 | 0.32 | – | – | – | |
| Diarrhea | No malaria chemoprophylaxis | 0.57 | −6.74 | 0.81 | 1.00 |
| Malaria chemoprophylaxis | 0.25 | – | – | – | |
| Long sleeves to prevent sunburn | No prior travel | 0.37 | −4.42 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Prior travel | 0.69 | – | – | – | |
| Used insect repellent | No prior travel | 0.83 | −3.45 | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Prior travel | 0.57 | – | – | – | |
| Fever | No pretravel healthcare | 0.20 | −1.68 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| Pretravel healthcare | 0.05 | – | – | – | |
| Malaria chemoprophylaxis | Stayed in urban area | 0.63 | −1.10 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Stayed in rural area | 0.80 | – | – | – | |
| Travel-related non-specific symptoms | No bed netting | 0.21 | −0.55 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| Used bed net | 0.07 | – | – | – | |
| Closed windows | Stayed in urban area | 0.17 | −0.27 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Stayed in rural area | 0.33 | – | – | – |
BIC = Bayesian Information Criterion.