TABLE 4.
Predictive performance of limited sampling strategy models for estimation of tacrolimus exposure in adult kidney transplant recipients
| Model | Sample times (h) | Mean AUCpredicted (µg*h/L), (range) | MPE (%) (95% CI) | MAE (%) (95% CI) | RMSE (95% CI) | Agreement – concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | 0 h | 189.96 (131.75–269.9) | −0.12 (−2.13 to 1.90) | 12.43 (11.67–13.19) | 27.59 (25.81–29.37) | 0.84 (0.65–0.93) |
| Model 2 | 10 h | 192.38 (134.81–312.25) | 0.54 (−0.31 to 1.39) | 5.66 (5.30–6.01) | 13.98 (13.18–14.78) | 0.95 (0.89–0.98) |
| Model 3 | 0, 10 h | 192.10 (136.47–312.10) | 0.13 (−0.74 to 1.00) | 5.54 (5.12–5.96) | 14.03 (13.08–14.97) | 0.96 (0.91–0.98) |
| Model 4 | 2, 10 h | 192.10 (134.06–307.78) | −0.09 (−0.69 to 0.52) | 3.82 (3.59–4.04) | 8.66 (8.15–9.17) | 0.99 (0.97–0.99) |
| Model 5 | 0, 2, 10 h | 192.68 (135.7–308.85) | −0.13 (−0.64 to 0.39) | 3.44 (3.20–3.68) | 7.94 (7.42–8.45) | 0.99 (0.97–1.00) |
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the time‐concentration curve; AUCpredicted, predicted AUC0–24; CI, confidence interval; MAE%, mean absolute percentage prediction error; MPE%, mean percentage prediction error; RMSE, root mean squared prediction error.
Evaluation set data: n = 9; actual AUC0–24 mean (SD) 192.29 (43.98) µg*h/L; range 138.78–305.76 µg*h/L.