. 2022 Jan 11;63(3):1375–1402. doi: 10.1007/s00181-021-02168-3

Table 4.

Determinants of fiscal balance (commodity-exporting countries)

	Dependent variable: $F B_{i, t}$
$F B_{i, t - 1}$	0.55*** (0.03) [0.08]	0.39*** (0.04) [0.09]	0.51*** (0.03) [0.09]	0.46*** (0.03) [0.11]	0.52*** (0.03) [0.09]	0.50*** (0.03) [0.09]	0.56*** (0.03) [0.08]	0.57*** (0.03) [0.08]	0.51*** (0.03) [0.09]	0.53*** (0.03) [0.08]
$C P V_{i, t}$	–0.03*** (0.009) [0.01]	–0.12*** (0.03) [0.03]	–0.03*** (0.008) [0.01]	–0.13*** (0.02) [0.05]	–0.02** (0.01) [0.01]	–0.01*** (0.003) [0.008]	–0.0003 (0.0003) [0.0003]	–0.0008 (0.001) [0.0009]	–0.47*** (0.10) [0.20]	0.001 (0.01) [0.01]
$P C C P_{i, t}$	0.03*** (0.004) [0.005]	0.03*** (0.006) [0.006]	0.02*** (0.007) [0.006]	0.004 (0.003) [0.003]	0.02*** (0.005) [0.003]	0.02*** (0.008) [0.009]	0.03*** (0.005) [0.005]	0.03*** (0.006) [0.007]	0.02*** (0.004) [0.004]	0.03*** (0.004) [0.004]
$C A P_{i, t}$	0.0007 (0.002) [0.001]	0.001 (0.002) [0.001]	0.002 (0.002) [0.001]	0.002 (0.002) [0.001]	0.003 (0.002) [0.001]	0.002 (0.002) [0.001]	0.0009 (0.002) [0.001]	0.001 (0.002) [0.001]	0.002 (0.002) [0.001]	0.001 (0.002) [0.001]
$M I_{i, t}$	–0.90*** (0.18) [0.26]	–0.75*** (0.24) [0.22]	–0.90*** (0.19) [0.29]	–1.11*** (0.19) [0.26]	–0.84*** (0.19) [0.28]	–1.00*** (0.19) [0.27]	–0.83*** (0.19) [0.27]	–0.80*** (0.19) [0.27]	–1.01*** (0.19) [0.27]	–0.95*** (0.20) [0.32]
$R I R_{i, t}$	–0.04*** (0.02) [0.03]	–0.04*** (0.02) [0.02]	–0.06*** (0.02) [0.03]	–0.07*** (0.01) [0.03]	–0.07*** (0.02) [0.03]	–0.06*** (0.02) [0.03]	–0.04** (0.02) [0.02]	–0.02 (0.02) [0.02]	–0.07*** (0.02) [0.03]	–0.005 (0.02) [0.02]
$R I R_{i, t}$ * $C P V_{i, t}$	–0.002** (0.0009) [0.001]	–0.005** (0.002) [0.003]	–0.0007 (0.0007) [0.001]	–0.001 (0.002) [0.005]	0.0002 (0.001) [0.0007]	$-$ 0.0004 (0.0003) [0.0008]	–0.00009*** (0.00003) [0.00004]	–0.0004*** (0.0001) [0.0001]	–0.01 (0.009) [0.02]	–0.003** (0.001) [0.002]
R²	0.49	0.43	0.46	0.45	0.47	0.46	0.50	0.49	0.46	0.48
Periods	36	30	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	26
Countries	45	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Observations	839	617	839	839	839	839	839	839	839	806

Dependent variable:

F B_{i, t}

Crude oil

Steel

Soybean

Iron ore

Maize

Gold

Copper

Aluminium

Silver

Gas

F B_{i, t - 1}

0.55***

(0.03)

[0.08]

0.39***

(0.04)

[0.09]

0.51***

(0.03)

[0.09]

0.46***

(0.03)

[0.11]

0.52***

(0.03)

[0.09]

0.50***

(0.03)

[0.09]

0.56***

(0.03)

[0.08]

0.57***

(0.03)

[0.08]

0.51***

(0.03)

[0.09]

0.53***

(0.03)

[0.08]

C P V_{i, t}

–0.03***

(0.009)

[0.01]

–0.12***

(0.03)

[0.03]

–0.03***

(0.008)

[0.01]

–0.13***

(0.02)

[0.05]

–0.02**

(0.01)

[0.01]

–0.01***

(0.003)

[0.008]

–0.0003

(0.0003)

[0.0003]

–0.0008

(0.001)

[0.0009]

–0.47***

(0.10)

[0.20]

0.001

(0.01)

[0.01]

P C C P_{i, t}

0.03***

(0.004)

[0.005]

0.03***

(0.006)

[0.006]

0.02***

(0.007)

[0.006]

0.004

(0.003)

[0.003]

0.02***

(0.005)

[0.003]

0.02***

(0.008)

[0.009]

0.03***

(0.005)

[0.005]

0.03***

(0.006)

[0.007]

0.02***

(0.004)

[0.004]

0.03***

(0.004)

[0.004]

C A P_{i, t}

0.0007

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.001

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.002

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.002

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.003

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.002

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.0009

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.001

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.002

(0.002)

[0.001]

0.001

(0.002)

[0.001]

M I_{i, t}

–0.90***

(0.18)

[0.26]

–0.75***

(0.24)

[0.22]

–0.90***

(0.19)

[0.29]

–1.11***

(0.19)

[0.26]

–0.84***

(0.19)

[0.28]

–1.00***

(0.19)

[0.27]

–0.83***

(0.19)

[0.27]

–0.80***

(0.19)

[0.27]

–1.01***

(0.19)

[0.27]

–0.95***

(0.20)

[0.32]

R I R_{i, t}

–0.04***

(0.02)

[0.03]

–0.04***

(0.02)

[0.02]

–0.06***

(0.02)

[0.03]

–0.07***

(0.01)

[0.03]

–0.07***

(0.02)

[0.03]

–0.06***

(0.02)

[0.03]

–0.04**

(0.02)

[0.02]

–0.02

(0.02)

[0.02]

–0.07***

(0.02)

[0.03]

–0.005

(0.02)

[0.02]

R I R_{i, t}

C P V_{i, t}

–0.002**

(0.0009)

[0.001]

–0.005**

(0.002)

[0.003]

–0.0007

(0.0007)

[0.001]

–0.001

(0.002)

[0.005]

0.0002

(0.001)

[0.0007]

$-$ 0.0004

(0.0003)

[0.0008]

–0.00009***

(0.00003)

[0.00004]

–0.0004***

(0.0001)

[0.0001]

–0.01

(0.009)

[0.02]

–0.003**

(0.001)

[0.002]

R²

0.49

0.43

0.46

0.45

0.47

0.46

0.50

0.49

0.46

0.48

Periods

Countries

Observations

839

617

839

806

Standard errors are presented below the corresponding coefficients in brackets. The asterisks ***, ** and * indicate the significance at the 1, 5 and 10 per cent level, respectively. Cluster standard errors are presented in square brackets