Table A2.
Performance of risk models by race/ethnicity at UPenn.
| Performance Metric by Race | BCRAT | BCSC | BRCAPRO | BRCAPRO+BCRAT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White (N = 220 Cases) | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI |
| O/E | 1.129 | 0.999, 1.281 | 1.400 | 1.241, 1.588 | 1.259 | 1.117, 1.434 | 1.161 | 1.027, 1.317 |
| AUC | 0.580 | 0.544, 0.619 | 0.565 a | 0.525, 0.601 | 0.549 b,c | 0.513, 0.583 | 0.583 | 0.548, 0.623 |
| TPR | 0.532 | 0.47, 0.595 | 0.373 | 0.309, 0.431 | 0.473 | 0.402, 0.533 | 0.500 | 0.436, 0.561 |
| FPR | 0.421 | 0.412, 0.429 | 0.273 | 0.264, 0.281 | 0.401 | 0.394, 0.41 | 0.383 | 0.373, 0.391 |
| Patients with high 5-year risk, N (%) |
4783 (42.28) | - | 3112 (27.51) | - | 4557 (40.28) | - | 4354 (38.49) | - |
| Black or African American (N = 170 cases) d |
||||||||
| O/E | 1.152 | 0.984, 1.377 | 1.413 | 1.218, 1.691 | 1.112 | 0.957, 1.33 | 1.190 | 1.016, 1.423 |
| AUC | 0.610 | 0.571, 0.653 | 0.644 | 0.594, 0.684 | 0.608 | 0.565, 0.648 | 0.615 | 0.572, 0.659 |
| TPR | 0.353 | 0.276, 0.424 | 0.241 | 0.178, 0.305 | 0.429 | 0.353, 0.5 | 0.324 | 0.263, 0.393 |
| FPR | 0.199 | 0.192, 0.206 | 0.110 | 0.105, 0.116 | 0.273 | 0.265, 0.282 | 0.193 | 0.186, 0.2 |
| Patients with high 5-year risk, N (%) |
2266 (20.09) | - | 1267 (11.23) | - | 3108 (27.56) | - | 2201 (19.51) | - |
a p < 0.05 between White vs. Black women for BCSC model. b p < 0.05 between White vs. Black women for BRCAPRO model. c p < 0.05 between BRCAPRO vs. BRCAPRO+BRAT models for White women. d p < 0.05 between BRCAT vs. BCSC, BCSC vs. BCRAPRO, & BCSC vs. BRCAPRO+BRCAT for Black women.