Table 12.
Nonlinear effects of vaccines on economic activity using mobility
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | Mobility | Mobility | Mobility | Mobility | Mobility | |
| First dose per capita | − 0.208008 | − 0.111641 | 0.068691 | |||
| (0.138) | (0.164) | (0.090) | ||||
| First dose squared | 0.005015* | 0.002153 | ||||
| (0.003) | (0.003) | |||||
| Second dose per capita | 0.322693** | 0.060115 | 0.128190 | |||
| (0.160) | (0.270) | (0.208) | ||||
| Second dose squared | 0.006777 | |||||
| (0.004) | ||||||
| Surprises in vaccines administered (per capita) | 0.084600 | 0.498283 | ||||
| (0.574) | (0.396) | |||||
| Second dose per capita * Surprises in vaccines administered | 0.008895 | |||||
| (0.008) | ||||||
| Interaction with second dose quartiles (1st quartile omitted) | ||||||
| 2nd Quartile of second doses administered * surprises in vaccines | − 0.298942 | |||||
| (0.505) | ||||||
| 3rd quartile of second doses administered * surprises in vaccines | − 0.035946 | |||||
| (0.454) | ||||||
| 4th Quartile of second doses administered * surprises in vaccines | 0.127307 | |||||
| (0.382) | ||||||
| Low second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines | − 0.204844 | |||||
| (0.590) | ||||||
| High second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines | 0.687222*** | |||||
| (0.175) | ||||||
| Observations | 6215 | 6215 | 6215 | 5868 | 5868 | 5868 |
| R-squared | 0.435 | 0.438 | 0.439 | 0.444 | 0.444 | 0.444 |
| Country FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| No. of countries | 46 | 46 | 46 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| P-value F-test | 0.136 | |||||
Table reports results for the nonlinear impact of vaccines on retail and recreational mobility2. Columns 1 through 3 add additional terms for the square of the share of population that is vaccinated to the specification in Eq. (1). Column 4 through 6 test use different specification to test for interactions between the share of population fully vaccinated and the vaccine surprise variable. Column 4 uses a simple interaction term, column 5 is based on different quartiles of the vaccination rate (Eq. 2), while column 6 allows for interactions based on a smooth transition function. The regressions control for stringency of containment measures, other non-pharmaceutical interventions and health policy controls (one lag), lags of mobility (one lag), lagged new cases, (one lag), lagged NO2 and CO emissions (one lag) country-specific time trends, as well as country and time fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the country level. ***, **, and * represent statistically significant at 1, 5, and 10%, respectively