Figure 1.

Performance of the proposed risk prediction model for second primary lung cancer. A) Calibration plots with discriminative performance (area under the curve [AUC]) and prediction accuracy (Brier score) based on an internal validation using 200 bootstrapped resamples from the development cohort (the Multiethnic Cohort [MEC]). B) Plots of mean difference from predicted to observed probability (calibration error) across risk deciles from the MEC. Calibration plots and calibration errors from 2 external validation datasets of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) in (C) and (D) and of the National Lung Screening Trials (NLST) in (E) and (F), respectively. 95% confidence intervals are shown within parentheses for the AUCs and Brier scores.