Table 6.

Credible interval overlap measures, area overlap measures, standardized differences in means (SMD), and Hellinger distances based on posterior samples from the original calibrated model ($p_{\mathit{orig}}(\theta \mid y)$), the start from scratch method for recalibration that incorporates new screen-detection rate targets ($p_{\mathit{scratch}}(\theta \mid y,z)$) and the sequential recalibration method that starts from the original calibrated posterior samples when adding in the new target ($p_{\mathit{seq}}(\theta \mid y,z)$)

	$p_{\mathit{orig}}(\theta \mid y)$ and $p_{\mathit{scratch}}(\theta \mid y,z)$				$p_{\mathit{seq}}(\theta \mid y,z)$ and $p_{\mathit{scratch}}(\theta \mid y,z)$
Parameter	CI overlap	Area overlap	SMD	Hellinger	CI overlap	Area overlap	SMD	Hellinger
Adenoma risk
A	0.91	0.69	0.35	0.21	0.97	0.86	0.07	0.08
${\alpha }_1$	0.83	0.58	0.57	0.24	0.86	0.73	0.24	0.16
${\sigma }_{\alpha }$	0.72	0.41	0.87	0.40	0.95	0.93	0.04	0.05
${\alpha }_{20}$	0.97	0.90	0.11	0.07	0.98	0.94	0.04	0.03
${\alpha }_{50}$	0.90	0.68	0.51	0.17	0.98	0.94	0.04	0.03
${\alpha }_{60}$	0.92	0.54	0.71	0.24	0.99	0.91	0.08	0.04
${\alpha }_{70}$	0.93	0.70	0.44	0.16	1.00	0.92	0.09	0.03
Adenoma growth
${\beta }_{2c}$	0.76	0.32	1.47	0.45	0.97	0.92	0.05	0.04
${\beta }_{1c}$	0.75	0.39	1.18	0.40	0.98	0.88	0.12	0.06
${\beta }_{2r}$	0.87	0.61	0.57	0.21	0.98	0.95	0.01	0.04
${\beta }_{1r}$	0.96	0.81	0.20	0.10	0.99	0.85	0.20	0.07
p	0.66	0.31	1.44	0.48	0.97	0.93	0.01	0.05
Transition to Pre CRC
${\gamma }_0$	0.78	0.55	0.06	0.29	0.96	0.90	0.05	0.06
${\gamma }_1$	0.88	0.77	0.05	0.14	0.97	0.92	0.03	0.05
${\gamma }_2$	0.99	0.87	0.11	0.06	0.97	0.92	0.03	0.05
${\gamma }_3$	0.83	0.57	0.70	0.25	0.97	0.84	0.19	0.08
${\gamma }_4$	0.44	0.18	2.24	0.66	0.96	0.90	0.04	0.05
${\gamma }_5$	0.97	0.74	0.34	0.13	0.99	0.92	0.08	0.04
${\sigma }_{\gamma }$	0.63	0.29	1.11	0.57	0.94	0.86	0.07	0.08
Sojourn time
${\lambda }_2$	0.57	0.14	1.75	0.70	0.93	0.88	0.06	0.07
${\lambda }_1$	0.00	0.01	5.76	0.98	0.98	0.90	0.11	0.05
${\lambda }_3$	0.04	0.04	2.76	0.90	0.96	0.92	0.02	0.05