Table 5.

Sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of the model at various predicted thresholds in males with progression of diabetes.

Population	Incidence period	Predicted risk threshold	Sensitivity (95% CI) in %	Specificity (95% CI) in %	PPV (95% CI) in %
Male patients initiating insulin	12 months	≥0.5%	35.68 (32.7–38.74)	94.31 (94.24–94.38)	1.41 (1.26–1.56)
	12 months	≥1%	11.86 (9.92–14.03)	99.3 (99.28–99.33)	3.73 (3.1–4.45)
	12 months	≥2%	4.82 (3.58–6.35)	99.88 (99.87–99.89)	8.39 (6.25–10.97)
	36 months	≥0.5%	64.13 (61.91–66.3)	67.93 (67.79–68.07)	0.85 (0.8–0.9)
	36 months	≥1%	26.44 (24.46–28.5)	94.1 (94.03–94.17)	1.89 (1.73–2.06)
	36 months	≥2%	8.05 (6.86–9.37)	99.29 (99.27–99.32)	4.65 (3.95–5.43)
	60 months	≥0.5%	79.23 (77.57–80.82)	42.77 (42.62–42.92)	0.77 (0.74–0.81)
	60 months	≥1%	39.31 (37.37–41.27)	83.75 (83.64–83.86)	1.35 (1.26–1.43)
	60 months	≥2%	12.52 (11.24–13.89)	97.76 (97.72–97.81)	3.06 (2.73–3.42)
Male patients initiating oral hypoglycemia	12 months	≥0.5%	1.52 (0.56–3.28)	99.88 (99.87–99.89)	1.19 (0.44–2.57)
	12 months	≥1%	0 (0–0.93)	99.99 (99.99–99.99)	0 (0–11.22)
	12 months	≥2%	0 (0–0.93)	100 (100–100)	0 (0–52.18)
	36 months	≥0.5%	21.65 (19.17–24.29)	93.24 (93.17–93.32)	0.81 (0.71–0.92)
	36 months	≥1%	3.79 (2.71–5.14)	99.56 (99.54–99.58)	2.16 (1.54–2.95)
	36 months	≥2%	0.58 (0.21–1.26)	99.97 (99.97–99.98)	5 (1.86–10.57)
	60 months	≥0.5%	56.03 (53.54–58.5)	67.18 (67.04–67.33)	0.66 (0.62–0.71)
	60 months	≥1%	10.6 (9.12–12.22)	96.47 (96.41–96.53)	1.16 (0.99–1.35)
	60 months	≥2%	1.71 (1.13–2.48)	99.77 (99.76–99.79)	2.87 (1.9–4.15)
Male patients with ΔHbA1c ≥1% with last HbA1c ≥8%	12 months	≥0.5%	17.36 (15.04–19.89)	98.1 (98.07–98.14)	1.53 (1.31–1.77)
	12 months	≥1%	4.19 (3.02–5.64)	99.83 (99.82–99.84)	4 (2.88–5.38)
	12 months	≥2%	1.33 (0.71–2.26)	99.98 (99.98–99.99)	11.5 (6.27–18.87)
	36 months	≥0.5%	52.16 (49.99–54.32)	77.34 (77.23–77.45)	0.82 (0.78–0.88)
	36 months	≥1%	14.91 (13.41–16.51)	97.02 (96.97–97.06)	1.77 (1.58–1.98)
	36 months	≥2%	3.55 (2.8–4.43)	99.74 (99.73–99.75)	4.69 (3.7–5.85)
	60 months	≥0.5%	72.69 (71–74.33)	51.33 (51.2–51.46)	0.72 (0.69–0.76)
	60 months	≥1%	28.24 (26.58–29.94)	89.15 (89.07–89.23)	1.25 (1.17–1.34)
	60 months	≥2%	6.4 (5.52–7.37)	98.93 (98.9–98.95)	2.83 (2.44–3.27)