Fig. 1. Impact of the reactive class-closure policy based on syndromic surveillance.

A Relative burden of the cumulative number of infections after 1 year as a function of the reproduction number and for different scenarios about school transmission contribution. The bar corresponds to the mean value, while the vertical line represents 95% quantile intervals; colors refer to the three scenarios F25, F50, F100. Parameters are as the baseline values reported in Supplementary Tables 1 and 2. Note that R is estimated in the absence of the class-closure strategy. The relative burden is defined as the estimated number of infections after 1 year since the introduction of the first infected individual with the class-closure strategy implemented, relative to the estimated number without the implementation of the class-closure strategy. For each scenario, 500 stochastic simulations were performed. B As in (A), but for the number of deaths. C Number of missed school days per student due to the reactive class-closure strategy. The boxplot indicates quantile 0.025, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 0.975.