Table 2:
Median percentage incarcerated and coverage of OAT and ART (community and prison) for each intervention scenario with corresponding mean total and incremental costs, life years gained (LYG), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life year gained over 20 years from 2020-2040. All costs and LYG are discounted 3% annually.
| Intervention coverage and % incarcerated in 2040 |
Comparisons compared to BASELINE | Comparisons compared to PREVIOUS SCENARIO |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | % Incarcerated |
Coverage ART*** |
Coverage OAT*** |
Total Costs (Euros) |
Total Life Years |
Incremental Costs (Euro) |
Life Years Gained |
ICER (Cost per LYG) |
Incremental Costs (Euro) |
Life Years Gained |
ICER (Cost per LYG) |
| Belarus | |||||||||||
| Baseline SQ | 34.6% | 39.6% | 0.4% | 2,534,578,868 | 1,905,493 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| S1: Decriminalisation | 27.3% | 43.7% | 0.6% | 2,103,723,830 | 1,906,415 | −430,855,039 | 923 | Cost saving | −430,855,039 | 923 | Cost saving |
| S2: PH approach | 25.5% | 83.8% | 41.2% | 2,345,128,162 | 2,005,618 | −189,450,706 | 100,126 | Cost saving | 241,404,332 | 99,203 | 2,433 |
| S3: Full scale-up | 25.5% | 83.8% | 41.2% | 2,345,128,162 | 2,005,618 | −189,450,706 | 100,126 | Cost saving | 0 | 0 | N/A |
| Kazakhstan | |||||||||||
| Baseline SQ | 30.0% | 21.2% | 0.2% | 4,128,681,587 | 3,736,146 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| S1: Decriminalisation | 22.8% | 25.3% | 0.2% | 3,355,446,703 | 3,737,840 | −773,234,884 | 1,694 | Cost saving | −773,234,884 | 1,694 | Cost saving |
| S2: PH approach | 21.8% | 86.5% | 41.8% | 3,691,945,813 | 3,884,610 | −436,735,773 | 148,464 | Cost saving | 336,499,111 | 146,769 | 2,293** |
| S3: Full scale-up | 21.8% | 86.5% | 41.8% | 3,691,945,813 | 3,884,610 | −436,735,773 | 148,464 | Cost saving | 0 | 0 | N/A |
| Kyrgyzstan | |||||||||||
| Baseline SQ | 16.5% | 44.0% | 6.8% | 197,853,088 | 794,721 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| S1: Decriminalisation | 12.3% | 46.6% | 6.3% | 159,842,974 | 795,466 | −38,010,115 | 745 | Cost saving | −38,010,115 | 745 | Cost saving |
| S2: PH approach | 11.7% | 88.0% | 29.7% | 185,326,522 | 812,488 | −12,526,567 | 17,768 | Cost saving | 25,483,548 | 17,023 | 1,497* |
| S3: Full scale-up | 11.5% | 90.0% | 41.1% | 198,376,963 | 818,332 | 523,875 | 23,611 | 22** | 13,050,442 | 5,844 | 2,233* |
| St. Petersburg | |||||||||||
| Baseline SQ | 16.1% | 35.1% | 0 | 1,638,734,392 | 1,592,757 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| S1: Decriminalisation | 8.5% | 40.0% | 0 | 1,211,257,416 | 1,594,060 | −427,476,976 | 1,303 | Cost saving | −427,476,976 | 1,303 | Cost saving |
| S2: PH approach | 8.2% | 79.7% | 39.5% | 1,596,859,627 | 1,691,858 | −41,874,765 | 99,101 | Cost saving | 385,602,211 | 97,798 | 3,943 ** |
| S3: Full scale-up | 8.2% | 79.8% | 40.3% | 1,600,037,977 | 1,692,821 | −38,696,415 | 100,064 | Cost saving | 3,178,351 | 963 | 3,300 ** |
*
and ** signifies the intervention is cost effective compared to the threshold of three and one times per capita GDP for each country (see Table 1), respectively.
***
ART coverage increases greater than 81% due to the benefits of OAT on ART recruitment and retention. Coverage of OAT increases above 40% due to dynamic effects in the model over time.