Fig. 4. Emergent constraints on the sensitivity of projected carbon and heat uptake to stratification.
a, b cumulative future Cant uptake between 30°S and 55°S and c future ocean Hexcess uptake efficiency and their emergent relation to the contemporary stratification. CMIP5, CMIP6 and combined CMIP5/6 ensembles are denoted in blue, red and magenta, respectively. Emergent constraints include a linear regression fit (dotted line), its 68% prediction interval (abbreviated pred. int., coloured shaded area according to the ensemble), the observational constraint (vertical black dots) and its uncertainty (grey shaded area). All emergent constraints are accompanied by d–f prior- and after-constraint probability density functions and g, h correlation time-series obtained by sliding the predictand over time while leaving the predictor fixed.