Fig. 2. The effect of larval competition on the thermal response of population-level Ae. aegypti fitness (r_m) with bootstrapped 95% prediction bounds.

a Competition at 0.183 mg ml⁻¹ significantly depressed r_m across the entire temperature range and narrowed its thermal niche width compared to the higher resource levels (non-overlapping 95% prediction bounds, Table 3). Symbols denote matrix projection estimates with 95% confidence intervals (Table 2). b Competition at 0.183 mg ml⁻¹ significantly (non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals) lowered maximal r_m and caused it to peak (r_m T_opt) at a significantly lower temperature than at the intermediate resource level (0.367 mg ml⁻¹). Predicted r_m T_opt at 0.183 mg ml⁻¹ indicates that competition could decrease r_m T_opt by 6.4 °C, when compared to the intermediate resource level (0.367 mg ml⁻¹, Table 3). The Kamykowski model⁸² (Eq. 2) predictions are in Supplementary Data 2.