Table 1.
Modelled results: change in projected outcomes as compared to scenario without any service disruption, from the Spectrum and CEPAC‐P models
| Service disruption length | No disruption (comparator) | 3 months (100%) | 3 months (100%) | 3 months (100%) | 6 months (100%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months (25%) | 3 months (50%) | 3 months (75%) | ||||
| Mothers receiving PMTCT a , b | ||||||
| Projected number | 959,200 | 789,800 | 755,400 | 721,200 | 685,200 | |
| # change | n/a | −169,400 | −203,800 | −238,000 | −274,000 | |
| % change | −18% | −21% | −25% | −29% | ||
| New paediatric HIV infections a | ||||||
| Projected number | 106,200 | 175,400 | 187,800 | 200,000 | 213,500 | |
| # change | n/a | +69,200 | +81,600 | +93,500 | +107,300 | |
| % change | +65% | +77% | +88% | +101% | ||
| Children receiving ART a | ||||||
| Projected number | 796,700 | 565,300 | 516,800 | 468,000 | 418,500 | |
| # change | n/a | −231,400 | −279,900 | −328,600 | −378,100 | |
| % change | −29% | −35% | −41% | −47% | ||
| ART failures among children engaged in care prior to service disruptions c , d | ||||||
| Projected number | 282,400 | 458,900 | 507,200 | 555,400 | 603,700 | |
| # change | n/a | +176,500 | +224,800 | +273,000 | +321,300 | |
| % change | +63% | +80% | +97% | +114% | ||
| Paediatric AIDS‐related deaths among all children living with HIV a | ||||||
| Projected number | 73,400 | 85,900 | 88,400 | 90,900 | 94,000 | |
| # change | n/a | +28,900 | +33,900 | +38,700 | +44,300 | |
| % change | +23% | +27% | +30% | +35% | ||
| Paediatric AIDS‐related deaths among all children engaged in care c | ||||||
| Projected number | 33,700 | 49,200 | 51,700 | 54,100 | 56,500 | |
| # change | n/a | +15,600 | +18,000 | +20,400 | +22,900 | |
| % change | +46% | +54% | +61% | +68% | ||
Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
Abbreviations: ART, antiretroviral therapy; PMTCT, prevention of maternal‐to‐child transmission.
Model projections generated by Spectrum.
Mothers receiving PMTCT is defined as pregnant and breastfeeding women receiving effective ART.
Model projections generated by CEPAC‐P.
ART failure within the CEPAC‐P model includes (1) clinical treatment failure, defined as a new or recurring WHO Stage 3/4 opportunistic infection or tuberculosis, (2) immunologic treatment failure, defined as a CD4% <10% (for children <5 years old) or CD4 count <100/μl (for children ≥5 years old) or (3) virologic treatment failure, defined as an increase of 3 or more viral load (VL) strata following ART start, with strata copies/ml defined as 0–20; 20–500; 500–3000; 3000–10,000; 10,000–30,000; 30,000–100,000; and >100,000.