Table 2.
Results on hold-out test set
| XGB | RF | CDC | |
| Any-stage DKD | |||
| AUROC | 0.750 | 0.748 | 0.634 |
| Sensitivity | 0.700 | 0.700 | 0.633 |
| Specificity | 0.670 | 0.662 | 0.560 |
| LR+ | 2.120 | 2.071 | 1.440 |
| LR− | 0.447 | 0.453 | 0.655 |
| DOR | 4.738 | 4.575 | 2.197 |
| DKD stages 3–5 | |||
| AUROC | 0.825 | 0.823 | 0.672 |
| Sensitivity | 0.750 | 0.750 | 0.637 |
| Specificity | 0.742 | 0.739 | 0.614 |
| LR+ | 2.906 | 2.870 | 1.652 |
| LR− | 0.336 | 0.338 | 0.591 |
| DOR | 8.638 | 8.492 | 2.794 |
| DKD stages 4–5 | |||
| AUROC | 0.830 | 0.821 | 0.617 |
| Sensitivity | 0.751 | 0.751 | 0.581 |
| Specificity | 0.739 | 0.712 | 0.581 |
| LR+ | 2.876 | 2.606 | 1.387 |
| LR− | 0.337 | 0.349 | 0.721 |
| DOR | 8.544 | 7.461 | 1.923 |
Comparison of XGB, RF and the CDC DKD performance includes AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, LR+ and LR‒, and DOR. Prediction of DKD within 5 years following T2DM diagnosis is divided into any-stage DKD, DKD stages 3–5 and DKD stages 4–5.
AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DKD, diabetic kidney disease; DOR, diagnostic OR; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; RF, random forest; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; XGB, gradient boosted tree.