Table 3.

Results on external validation set

	XGB	RF	CDC
Any-stage DKD
AUROC	0.769	0.769	0.643
Sensitivity	0.761	0.758	0.651
Specificity	0.622	0.619	0.573
LR+	2.015	1.989	1.522
LR−	0.384	0.391	0.610
DOR	5.251	5.089	2.496
DKD stages 3–5
AUROC	0.831	0.832	0.676
Sensitivity	0.807	0.804	0.640
Specificity	0.690	0.692	0.623
LR+	2.605	2.608	1.697
LR−	0.279	0.283	0.578
DOR	9.322	9.215	2.937
DKD stages 4–5
AUROC	0.826	0.827	0.620
Sensitivity	0.819	0.826	0.608
Specificity	0.664	0.643	0.576
LR+	2.438	2.313	1.436
LR−	0.273	0.270	0.680
DOR	8.933	8.555	2.111

Comparison of XGB, RF and the CDC DKD performance includes AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, LR+ and LR‒, DOR, and threshold. Prediction of DKD within 5 years following T2DM diagnosis is divided into any-stage DKD, DKD stages 3–5 and DKD stages 4–5.

AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DKD, diabetic kidney disease; DOR, diagnostic OR; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; RF, random forest; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; XGB, gradient boosted tree.