Table 4. Probabilities of rabies deaths and treatment apparent success rates for rabies exposures by traditional medicine and modern medicine scenarios.
| Variable | Baseline Value | Low-Endemicity Value | High-Endemicity Value | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Bite Victims | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | |
| P(rabid) | 10% | 1% | 74% | Hampson et al., 2015. Shim et al., 2009. Wallace et al., 2015. Medley et al., 2017. Borse et al., 2018. [1,27–30] |
| P(traditional treatment success)* | 0% | 0% | 0% | * |
| P(modern treatment success) | 99% | 100% | 95% | WHO, 2018. Shim et al., 2009. [2,27] |
| P(death without successful treatment) | 19% | 5% | 40% | Baltazard & Ghodssi, 1954. Shim et al., 2009. [27,31] |
| Expected Deaths (N)–Traditional Healer | 95 | 2.5 | 1,480 | |
| Apparent Success Rate–Traditional Healer | 98.10% | 99.95% | 70.40% | |
| Expected Deaths (N)–Modern Medicine | 1 | 0 | 74 | |
| Apparent Success Rate–Modern Medicine | 99.98% | 100.00% | 98.52% |
* The treatment’s apparent success rate of traditional medicine was not changed in the sensitivity analysis since no articles provided evidence that any traditional treatment would impact the risk of dying from rabies.