Table 3.
Selected ARIMA model specification.
| Country | Model type | Coefficient | Estimate | s.e. | AIC | AIC (AICc) | Likelihood | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | New cases ARIMA (3,1,14) |
ar3 ma1 ma7 ma14 |
-0.138 0.266 -0.270 -0.189 |
0.055 0.051 0.053 0.053 |
4805.151 | 4805.208 | -2400.576 | 0.012 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 |
| Death cases ARIMA (3,0,4) |
ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 ma2 ma3 ma4 |
0.546 -0.537 0.981 -0.242 -0.362 0.368 0.370 |
0.024 0.029 0.024 0.061 0.062 0.060 0.060 |
2826.193 | 2826.250 | -1411.097 | ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 |
|
|
| ||||||||
| South Africa | New cases ARIMA (0,1,11) |
ma2 ma4 ma6 ma7 ma11 |
0.113 0.114 -0.204 -0.400 0.218 |
0.050 0.054 0.051 0.051 0.056 |
6682.500 | 6682.536 | -3339.250 | 0.024 0.034 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 |
| Death cases ARIMA (0,1,4) |
ma1 ma4 |
0.488 0.239 |
0.046 0.047 |
4384.203 | 4384.203 | -2190.083 | ≤0.001 ≤0.001 |
|
|
| ||||||||
| Brazil | New cases ARIMA (1,0,10) |
ar1 ma1 ma7 ma10 |
0.996 0.792 -0.322 0.264 |
0.006 0.038 0.032 0.031 |
7626.332 | 7626.332 | -3811.166 | ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 |
| Death cases ARIMA (1,0,7) |
ar1 ma1 ma3 ma4 ma6 ma7 |
0.994 0.691 0.166 0.195 -0.244 -0.167 |
0.006 0.042 0.054 0.054 0.055 0.056 |
5034.376 | 5034.412 | -2515.18 | ≤0.001 ≤0.001 0.002 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 0.003 |
|
|
| ||||||||
| Nigeria | New cases ARIMA (1,1,14) |
ar1 ma2 ma7 ma14 |
-0.729 0.399 -0.355 -0.208 |
0.048 0.058 0.052 0.059 |
5024.805 | 5024.840 | -2510.402 | ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 ≤0.001 |
| Death cases ARIMA (Brown) |
Level and trend | 0.064 | 0.009 | 2081.021 | 2081.057 | -1038.511 | ≤0.001 | |