Table 4.

The goodness-of-fit criteria of the ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins).

Country	Model statistics								Ljung-Box (Q18)
	Model type	Stationary R2	R 2	RMSE	MAPE	MAE	MaxAPE	Normalized BIC	Statistics	DF	P
United Kingdom	New cases ARIMA (3,1,14)	0.134	0.971	2505.822	25.390	1194.057	1912.005	15.750	29.110	12	0.004
	Death cases ARIMA (3,0,4)	0.860	0.860	141.294	60.955	81.110	1350.324	10.014	413.202	11	≤0.001
South Africa	New cases ARIMA (0,1,11)	0.337	0.952	1074.397	28.867	607.300	1244.993	14.044	108.426	13	≤0.001
	Death cases ARIMA (0,1,4)	0.205	0.784	74.721	46.651	39.896	550.064	8.661	211.774	16	≤0.001
Brazil	New cases ARIMA (1,0,10)	0.712	0.712	10715.299	32.958	7390.316	252.310	18.627	218.426	14	≤0.001
	Death cases ARIMA (1,0,7)	0.705	0.705	233.234	30.343	163.986	185.523	11.007	186.154	12	≤0.001
Nigeria	New cases ARIMA (1,1,14)	0.412	0.877	146.608	36.186	90.432	480.824	10.044	19.850	14	0.135
	Death cases ARIMA (Brown)	0.804	0.443	3.938	80.946	2.566	1267.098	2.758	19.427	17	0.305