Table 5.
Prediction based on the ARIMA model of new cases for the selected countries at 95% confidence interval level for the next 27.
| Model type | United Kingdom ARIMA (3,1,7) | South Africa ARIMA (0,1,11) | Nigeria ARIMA (1,1,14) | Brazil ARIMA (1,0,10) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Forecast | LCL | UCL | Forecast | LCL | UCL | Forecast | LCL | UCL | Forecast | LCL | UCL |
| 3/1/2021 | 19843 | 14428 | 25873 | 4582 | -26 | 6023 | 1045 | 745 | 1345 | 46699 | 25059 | 63820 |
| 3/2/2021 | 21464 | 14969 | 28790 | 4616 | -595 | 6545 | 1417 | 1096 | 1739 | 54244 | 32178 | 68340 |
| 3/3/2021 | 22096 | 14999 | 30165 | 4642 | -1058 | 7026 | 1171 | 837 | 1504 | 55110 | 32630 | 76310 |
| 3/4/2021 | 22587 | 14884 | 31422 | 4661 | -1567 | 7167 | 1149 | 798 | 1500 | 49839 | 26956 | 77590 |
| 3/5/2021 | 21526 | 13556 | 30788 | 4680 | -1572 | 7766 | 1397 | 1033 | 1760 | 47791 | 24514 | 72722 |
| 3/6/2021 | 20264 | 12113 | 29877 | 4728 | -1552 | 8676 | 873 | 495 | 1252 | 41100 | 17439 | 71068 |
| 3/7/2021 | 19653 | 10869 | 30235 | 4738 | -2307 | 9494 | 1198 | 770 | 1626 | 40411 | 14291 | 64761 |
| 3/8/2021 | 19475 | 10058 | 31025 | 4772 | -2500 | 10687 | 967 | 519 | 1414 | 40008 | 11659 | 66530 |
| 3/9/2021 | 20193 | 9960 | 32893 | 4797 | -3122 | 11319 | 1230 | 747 | 1713 | 45728 | 15327 | 68357 |
| 3/10/2021 | 20550 | 9684 | 34190 | 4817 | -3957 | 11637 | 992 | 488 | 1496 | 45557 | 14691 | 76130 |
| 3/11/2021 | 20982 | 9487 | 35558 | 4836 | -4341 | 12020 | 1080 | 547 | 1612 | 45386 | 14066 | 76422 |
| 3/12/2021 | 20576 | 8755 | 35787 | 4883 | -4707 | 12387 | 1057 | 503 | 1611 | 45215 | 13452 | 76705 |
| 2/13/2021 | 20531 | 8293 | 36469 | 4893 | -5059 | 12738 | 965 | 387 | 1543 | 45046 | 12847 | 76979 |
| 3/14/2021 | 20559 | 7722 | 37556 | 4927 | -5397 | 13076 | 1032 | 415 | 1649 | 44877 | 12252 | 77244 |
| 3/15/2021 | 20702 | 7268 | 38755 | 4953 | -5723 | 13402 | 983 | 340 | 1625 | 44708 | 11667 | 77501 |
| 3/16/2021 | 20796 | 6822 | 39846 | 4972 | -6038 | 13717 | 1019 | 344 | 1693 | 44540 | 11090 | 77750 |
| 3/17/2021 | 20879 | 6426 | 40846 | 4991 | -6343 | 14023 | 992 | 292 | 1693 | 44373 | 10522 | 77991 |
| 3/18/2021 | 20946 | 6047 | 41795 | 5039 | -6640 | 14319 | 1011 | 283 | 1740 | 44207 | 9962 | 78225 |
| 3/19/2021 | 21020 | 5696 | 42730 | 5049 | -6929 | 14608 | 998 | 245 | 1751 | 44041 | 9410 | 78451 |
| 3/20/2021 | 21096 | 5366 | 43652 | 5083 | -7209 | 14889 | 1008 | 229 | 1786 | 43875 | 8866 | 78671 |
| 3/21/2021 | 21174 | 5056 | 44556 | 5108 | -7483 | 15163 | 1000 | 198 | 1802 | 43711 | 8329 | 78885 |
| 3/22/2021 | 21250 | 4764 | 45441 | 5128 | -7751 | 15430 | 1006 | 180 | 1831 | 43547 | 7800 | 79092 |
| 3/23/2021 | 21327 | 4489 | 46309 | 5147 | -8012 | 15692 | 1002 | 154 | 1850 | 43383 | 7277 | 79294 |
| 3/24/2021 | 21403 | 4228 | 47161 | 5194 | -8268 | 15948 | 1005 | 134 | 1875 | 43220 | 6762 | 79489 |
| 3/25/2021 | 21480 | 3982 | 47999 | 5204 | -8519 | 16198 | 1003 | 111 | 1894 | 43058 | 6253 | 79679 |
| 3/26/2021 | 21556 | 3749 | 48824 | 5238 | -8764 | 16444 | 1004 | 91 | 1917 | 42897 | 5750 | 79864 |
| 3/27/2021 | 21633 | 3528 | 49637 | 5264 | -9005 | 16684 | 1003 | 70 | 1936 | 42736 | 5254 | 80043 |