Observed compared with predicted 30-year risk of heart failure (HF) among White men (A), Black men (B), White women (C), and Black women (D) adjusted for competing risk of non-HF death using a 10-fold cross validation approach. Each data point represents one of the ten-fold cross validation runs with the average represented by the red line. Risk factor values are restricted to the clinical range in the derivation sample, including systolic blood pressure 80 to 200 mm Hg, total cholesterol 100 to 300 mg/dL, high density lipoprotein cholesterol 30 to 100 mg/dL.