Figure 7. In-silico clinical trials.
(A) Mortality curves modeled using data from the RECOVERY clinical trial, for each rs1990760 variant and treatment allocation, assuming a sample size of 500 patients per group. (B) Effect of rs1990760 TT variants (expressed as hazard ratio, HR) in simulated clinical trials including 6000 patients from populations with different minor allele frequencies, assigned to standard care. (C) Effect of dexamethasone therapy according to rs1990760 variants and different minor allele frequencies in simulated clinical trials including 6000 patients. Minor allele frequencies were estimated according to reported race in several subsets of patients from the RECOVERY trial: European population (0.61), overall population (0.53), mechanically ventilated patients (0.47), and African American/Asian population (0.13). An intermediate value of 0.30 was added for illustrative purposes. Points and error bars represent the estimated HR and the corresponding 95% confidence interval.
Figure 7—figure supplement 1. Simulated survival curves corresponding to in-silico clinical trials testing dexamethasone in 6000 COVID-19 patients from populations with different allelic frequencies.
