Table 2:
Estimated total numbers and proportions of children and adolescents still alive with HIV viral load less than 1000 copies per mL by years on ART, stratified by IeDEA region (adjusted analysis)
| Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated number with viral load <1000 copies per mL (plausible range) | Total non-deaths | Proportion with viral load <1000 copies per mL (plausible range) | Estimated number with viral load <1000 copies per mL (plausible range) | Total non-deaths | Proportion with viral load <1000 copies per mL (plausible range) | Estimated number with viral load <1000 copies per mL (plausible range) | Total non-deaths | Proportion with viral load <1000 copies per mL (plausible range) | |
|
| |||||||||
| Asia-Pacific | 1192 (961–1259) | 1426 | 84% (68–89) | 1123 (887–1165) | 1332 | 84% (67–87) | 995 (778–1026) | 1194 | 83% (65–86) |
| Caribbean, Central America, and South America | 174 (125–201) | 238 | 73% (53–84) | 151 (110–180) | 226 | 67% (49–80) | 129 (91–150) | 210 | 61% (43–71) |
| Central Africa | 94 (55–109) | 156 | 60% (35–70) | 65 (36–74) | 142 | 46% (25–52) | NA | NA | NA |
| East Africa | 3293 (2115–4115) | 5085 | 65% (42–81) | 2598 (1671–3279) | 4312 | 60% (39–76) | 1980 (1238–2454) | 3478 | 57% (36–71) |
| Southern Africa | 6459 (4311–8375) | 10 194 | 63% (42–82) | 6139 (3960–7740) | 9901 | 62% (40–78) | 5501 (3481–6855) | 9256 | 59% (38–74) |
| West Africa | 836 (586–1169) | 1736 | 48% (34–67) | 720 (492–999) | 1640 | 44% (30–61) | 572 (390–815) | 1529 | 37% (26–53) |
| Overall | 12 048 (8153–15 228) | 18 835 | 64% (43–81) | 10 796 (7156–13 437) | 17 553 | 62% (41–77) | 9177 (597–14 300) | 15 667 | 59% (38–91) |
ART consists of the combination of at least three antiretrovirals. Plausible ranges were generated by applying data for lower and upper bounds for the proportion of viral suppression using the literature reporting on viral outcomes among people with HIV in care (appendix pp 1–2). IeDEA=International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS. NA=not available.